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☕️ Why the right REITs still crush the market (and pay you to wait)

Mar 20, 2025

Howdy! 👋

First a big dip, then a rip, an early morning dip… and now another rip as I type.

What gives?

Computers.

We’ve talked about this more times than I can count.

Estimates vary, but 80%+ of today’s markets are computer-driven, with no regard whatsoever for fundamentals, valuations, headlines, or anything else. And unless you understand HOW the game is played, you will get separated from your money—it’s only a matter of when.

Fortunately, all is NOT lost.

Tactics count more than ever.

There are all kinds of ways to handle what’s happening, ranging from the simple (dollar-cost averaging) to the hopelessly complex (layered quant strategies).

Whatever path you choose, get busy.

You CAN do this!

Remember.

Investing is ultimately a bet on optimism. 

The path to profits and wealth is paved with consistency—especially when the going gets tough and others chicken out. 

Staying committed when others panic is what separates the winners from the whiners. 

So stay committed.

Stick to your strategy, trust the process, and keep your eyes on the bigger picture.

I know it’s tough – but history shows beyond any shadow of a doubt that’s the most profitable course of action.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Fed is a big nothing burger (again)

As expected, the Fed held rates while also reinforcing the widely anticipated 2 rate cuts later this year narrative. And traders wasted no time in getting on the gas – meaning buying to draw in the FOMO crowd. (Read)

Then along came the obligatory “rug pull” this morning to clean out the weak hands and we’re back in rally mode as I type.

The decision you’ve got to make is a) whether you’re in to win or content to let everyone else do that and b) what you’re going to do about it.

Personally, I’m going to break out my “buy list” and hope you’re doing the same thing.

2 – Time to buy SoftBank?

Japanese SoftBank Group is acquiring Ampere Computing, a startup specializing in Arm-based server chips, for $6.5 billion. (Read)

The deal’s expected to close in the second half of 2025, but the real story is why SoftBank wants Ampere Computing so badly:

Control Over the Arm Ecosystem: SoftBank’s already got Arm, the architecture powerhouse. Now, they’re grabbing a company that builds actual chips using Arm’s architecture. That’s not just playing the game—that’s rigging the board. With Ampere in the bag, SoftBank’s tightening its grip on the server and AI computing markets—a massive market opportunity.
AI Infrastructure Expansion: This move fits right into SoftBank’s grand AI master plan. They’re not just dabbling in AI; they’re hoarding it. Partnerships with OpenAI? Check. Stargate AI investment project? Also, check. Now, by adding Ampere’s tech to their toolbox, SoftBank’s building an AI empire that makes their existing Arm holdings look like appetizers.
Monetization & Diversification: Here’s the kicker: SoftBank’s not satisfied with just licensing architecture through Arm. They want to own the companies that build the specialized AI chips themselves. It’s the difference between renting the field and owning the whole damn farm. With Ampere under their umbrella, SoftBank is evolving from architecture licensor to a major AI hardware player.

Time to buy SoftBank?

A lot of people will and good on ‘em if they do.

MyPOV is that there are better, more direct paths to profitability with other chip makers, especially where there’s custom silicon in the works. But that’s just me.

Hmmm. 🧐

3 – Why the right REITs still rule

Norway’s $1.8 trillion sovereign wealth fund, managed by Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), have acquired a 25% stake in Shaftesbury Capital’s Covent Garden and Seven Dials portfolio for £570 million ($739 million), valuing the entire portfolio at £2.7 billion. (Read)

And that’s not all. Earlier this year, they grabbed a 25% stake in the Duke of Westminster’s Grosvenor estate for £306 million. That brings their total London investment for 2025 to a whopping £876 million.

So, why should you care about what’s happening “over there” when you may be “over here?”

Because big money is shifting capital into hard assets like real estate when the markets get shaky. It’s a classic move to hedge against volatility, protect against inflation, and secure reliable income.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Real estate value goes beyond the physical property and rental income it generates. It serves as a reflection of broader economic, social, and technological trends within the area. When you invest in real estate, you’re really investing in the economic engine that drives demand, whether it’s a thriving healthcare sector, booming tech hub, or resilient residential market. Even better if you tie it to a major investing theme like the 5Ds we use to guide our way in One Bar Ahead®.

The “right” REITs—meaning the ones with exposure to strong, consistent growth trends—are still fantastic investments, especially if you know where to look.

Data, medicine and longevity also apply to real estate – something most investors don’t bother to think about.

So how much of a difference does this really make?

I get that question a lot.

Try this on for size.

One of my favorite REITs has returned 205.32% over the past 5 years versus the SPY which has turned in 153.83% over the same time frame. That’s a 1.3x performance advantage.

Oh, and it pays a handsome divvy of ~4%, too which I love, especially in markets like the present.

Hopefully, you’ve got this covered. If not, you know where to find me.

4 - JPM’s New Inverse VIX ETN: A Better Mousetrap or Just More Cheese?

JPM just rolled out VYLD, an inverse VIX ETN designed to let investors short volatility. (Read)

Sounds slick, but let’s break it down.

Unlike past attempts—most of which flopped—VYLD scales exposure daily so a 1-point VIX move equals a 1% ETN move. Supposedly, this helps limit drawdowns. Plus, according to JPM it’s been back tested over 18 years of VIX futures data.

Why I’m Skeptical.

Back testing the VIX is a joke. The index has changed dramatically over the past 18 years so this is not only ridiculous at face value but strikes me as a lot like asking a guy with scissors if you need a haircut.

ETNs aren’t stocks. You can lose all your money—and then some if things go sideways.

Investors who buy in will be trading a derivative of derivatives. VYLD doesn’t directly short the VIX or track VIX futures 1:1.
Volatility drag and roll costs will very likely eat away returns when VIX futures flip between contango and backwardation.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Wall Street constantly rolls out products that make them fat commissions and you and your money more vulnerable. Stick to great companies with great CEOs who actually want to make you money—not just use yours to line their pockets.

Stay in your lane… not theirs!

5 – Trying an experiment, let me know if you like it!

For a long time, I’ve had people tell me that they can hear my voice in their head when they’re reading the 5 With Fitz and I'm incredibly humbled.

So, we’ve decided to try a little experiment and release a video version of the 5 with Fitz each day for anyone who wants to listen via a podcast on your way to the salt mines, out on a walk or whatever it is you do when you’re out and about.

You will find it on my YouTube channel.

Do go easy, though, I know I’ve got a ton of work to do to make it better!