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Sep 13, 2024

Howdy! 👋

I got up, hit the gym for some quick PT and then the TV cameras.

All by 0245.

Good thing coffee is a food group around here!

Futures are higher this morning after the S&P 500 did, in fact, notch a 4th straight win yesterday.

This week’s rally tally is now $1.3T and counting.

Watch for a sweep just after the opening bell today and/or within the last hour when big highly leveraged traders may take a shot at shaking out the weak hands or anybody lacking confidence in the stocks they own.

$1.3T is a lot of money, which is why there is no doubt in my mind that Wall Street’s merry marauders are acutely aware of the stakes.

As usual, any volatility is an opening and something YOU can use to their advantage.

LowBall Orders, Selling Cash Secured Puts, Limits... all tactics that work well in these kinds of conditions.

Get your “buy list” ready if the markets hand you that on a platter!

Here’s my playbook.

1 – What's it mean for the rest of the year?

That was the question the super smart Cheryl Casone asked me this morning on Mornings with Maria.

My two cents?

The path of least resistance is still higher for three reasons:

Stronger earnings and revenue for key companies
Falling inflation
Rate cuts that may start as soon as a few weeks from now

My annual S&P 500 target remains 5,751.51.

We’ll see!

Please note I will post the video of my interview later on my YouTube channel if you’d like to watch. The rest of my team isn’t up yet!

2 – Boeing just put a nail in its own coffin 🤦‍♂️

I mentioned yesterday that Boeing’s workers were digging in their heels when it comes to the new contract on offer. Now, they’ve up and rejected it and 737 production will grind to a halt. (Read)

The strike is on.

I am not surprised and trust you are not either, particularly if you’ve been reading along for a while as part of the 5 with Fitz and One Bar Ahead ® Family.

This past March, I said I “could see $150 a share without much of a stretch.” (See #4) And earlier this month, I called Boeing a “bug in search of a windshield.” (See #2)

Sadly, it looks like I was right on both counts.

Now, I’m wondering if $140 or so is in the cards.

Putskies, short or continue to avoid.

Boeing may not exist much longer, at least as we know it today.

3 – AI leaders at the WH

The four most dangerous words in the English language are, “we’re from the government” and “we’re here to help.”

Technically, I supposed that’s 8 but what the heck.

The good news is that the government is now aware that AI matters and that we have a vested national interest in making sure there’s enough power to lead the charge globally.

The bad news is that the government is now aware that AI matters and that we have a vested national interest in making sure there’s enough power to lead the charge globally.

Not for nothing but this is the same bunch that runs the Post Office, Amtrak, the VA, the IRS, the Fed and a dozen other organizations substantially all of which private industry could run better, more productively, and profitably imho. But that’s moot.

Net net, this is a good development.

Particularly for top-tier players and world class companies like Nvidia, Microsoft and others we talk about frequently and which I highlight in One Bar Ahead ® regularly.

If you’ve got this covered, good on ya! - most investors do not. And if you’re fed up with Wall Street’s shenanigans but don’t know where to turn for help, I’d like to toss my hat in the ring. You know where to find me if that’s of interest.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Many investors hunt for companies on the margin because that’s a strategy that’s worked for a long time. Smaller companies blossomed and many did quite well. The markets have changed, though; these days it’s very much, “buy the best, ignore the rest” because the bigger players have the size, scale, and capital to charge forward. Many smaller companies don’t.

4 – If you’re not buying, you’ll be crying

That’s what I told a gentleman who asked me about Palantir in late 2022 when it was scraping along in the $6-7 range and on national TV much to the amazement of many who were convinced it was vaporware.

Shares tapped $35 yesterday, a ~475.12% rise.

$50, a target I set long before Johnny-come-latelies entered the picture, isn’t that far off.

I think Team Karp gets there reasonably quickly for several reasons:

Ontology

Profits and margins

A hyper-focused CEO who makes no apologies

S&P 500 inclusion

FOMO

Palantir AIPCon 5 is underway, and you owe it to yourself to check in even if you’re not into “tech.” Customers cannot wait to share what they're doing with the world which, when you stop and think about it for a moment, is incredibly unusual.

More than 100 world-class organizations are at this year's AIPCon including names like The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, Aramark, BP, Associated Materials, Lear, Trinity Industries, Anduril, DTN, EllisDon, Department of State, L3Harris, Owens & Minor, and Selkirk Sport among others. (Watch)

Palantir has returned 103.32% YTD while the S&P 500 has chalked up 17.32%.

Snowflake, an oft-cited competitor usually thrown in my face whenever I bring up Palantir, isn’t even a blip in the mirror. Shares are down –43.22% YTD. Ouch.

Keith Investing Tip: Stocks like Palantir are rarer than hen’s teeth which is why you want to latch on early and hold on all the way to the proverbial buzzer (like a bull rider – which I actually tried... once). No doubt they’re going to be volatile but that doesn’t change the fact that they’ll change the world which is what you really ought to be paying attention to if you’re as serious about profit potential as I am.

5 – Time for more Pepsi?

I’ve owned Pepsi in the past but don’t presently because inflationary pressures and managerial challenges took a toll on performance.

Now, I’m thinking I might have another look.

Management expects 4% growth this year, which is totally lackluster to my way of thinking, but I love the 52 years of dividends on offer. (Read)

Now if only the True Shareholder Yield – a key metric when it comes to selecting stocks – would improve. It’s an appallingly low 2.68% at a time when other stocks I could buy (and recommend to the OBA Family) provide substantially more growth.

Hmmm.