☕️ Tesla's do or die moment

Howdy! 👋

Same story, different Monday.

The markets are down in early going pending any sort of tariff news/solution.

Earnings – remember those?!?! – don’t actually matter much in the scheme of things.

Psychology does.

Contrary to what many people want to believe, this isn't particularly unusual. 

Every time fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) run high and regardless of reason — think 2008, 2020, and even 2022 just to name a few recent examples — markets wobble before roaring back eventually.

I know it's hard - don't get me wrong.

Even I'm feeling like screaming, "enough already" every time I look at the headlines – millions of people are getting taken on a white knuckle ride they didn’t sign up for. And that stinks no matter how you cut it. 🤦‍♂️

Yet, history is very clear.

Investors who stay in the game and who manage risk intelligently tend to emerge far stronger and wealthier as a result. 

The markets always favor those with a plan and the courage to stick to it, not those who panic at the first sign of trouble.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – China returns a Boeing 737 Max

Some people return unwanted purchases to the store.

Well, China just refused delivery of another brand-new 737 Max. (Read)

Western media sees another round of trade tit-for-tat.

I see something bigger brewing.

China wouldn’t be poking Boeing unless it felt strong enough to push back... economically and politically. This could be the first of many jets returned.

I've made no bones about what’s happening for years.

Beijing is gearing up to push the domestically built C919 as a serious global competitor. Chinese airlines will be "encouraged" to shift new orders toward it, while foreign carriers looking to do more business with China will be "rewarded" for adding the C919 to their fleets.

Boeing and Airbus may be staring down a much bigger risk than Wall Street realizes — and it won't be confined to headlines, but to order books and revenue streams.

People will interpret this as a negative for Boeing — and it is. But I can also see this being the long-overdue kick in the asteroids the company needs. Real competition from the C919 could finally force Boeing to innovate, rebuild credibility, and step up after years of coasting.

But enough to buy the stock?

That’s a different proposition… at least until after earnings imho.

2 – Tesla’s Do-or-Die Moment, plus Google & Costco

I sat down for a quick conversation with the super savvy Ashley Webster ahead of today's opening bell. Here’s why I think Tesla faces a "do or die" moment when it reports. Plus, my take on Google's numbers and why Costco could still be the best recession-proof stock out there. (Watch)

3 – What happens if Trump fires Powell?

Legally tricky?

Sure.

Politically explosive?

Absolutely.

Market-moving?

No doubt.

Wall Street will throw a tantrum first — but very likely pivot quickly to pricing in lower rates and looser money. (Read)

Volatility will spike before the markets turn bullish faster than a Viking lines up at an all-you-can-eat buffet. Especially if somebody like JPM CEO Jamie Dimon (who actually understands how real money works) can be enticed to step in.

Trade idea: This is an outlier to be sure but sometimes the most interesting trades are just that. VIX call options? JPM putskies, then LEAPs calls. I can imagine a few different tactics would work nicely.

Hmmm. 🤔

Meanwhile, watch bond proxies, big tech, and gold... they'll move first. Bitcoin may or may not go along for the ride. 🤷🏻‍♂️

4 – Tech so cheap it's back to pre-ChatGPT levels

Hard to believe but true: some tech valuations are back to where they were before ChatGPT set the world on fire.

Investors are so busy chasing clickbait they’re missing the forest for the trees.

Keith’s Take: A “Magnificent 7” ETF could be a very smart play here — instant exposure to the world’s best tech companies, at prices we haven’t seen in years. I’ll still prefer individual stocks because the performance can be better when concentrated but that’s just me.

Patience + smart positioning = profits.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Many investors play not to lose which is why they emphasize ETFs, funds and other passive choices. History shows that real wealth-building power comes from concentrating on top tier players – a process I call, “buy the best, ignore the rest.” There’s plenty of profit potential either way at these levels; just be honest with yourself about what you can and can’t handle.

And if you’d like some help, I’ll be here.

5 – A Smart Dividend Energy Play

Williams (WMB) is set to announce earnings on May 6th.

Investors are pulling back from crude, but there could be several drivers here that Wall Street’s overlooking — weather-driven storage demand, dry gas growth, and AI-driven energy consumption among them.

The company’s backlog is strong, and management has kept its balance sheet in good shape.

Should you buy Williams?

That could be a smart decision if it fits your personal risk tolerance, objectives, and circumstances (none of which I know).

Personally, I prefer another name because it's got more diversified assets, stronger dividend coverage, and better cash flow visibility. But that's just me.

I hope you've got something similar in your portfolio or that you are at least thinking similarly.

Prices have dropped because of energy demand recession fears, but tariff solutions — which are almost certainly coming even though they may not be perfect — could immediately reverse that.

Smart investors are getting positioned now, not later. Anybody reinvesting, too.

Bottom Line

Markets are moving faster than many investors realize.

Stay focused, stay calm, and remember — the best opportunities often come wrapped in scary headlines.

As always, MAKE it a great day.

You got this — I promise!

Keith 😀