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$ today, $$$$ tomorrow

Jul 06, 2022

Good morning!

‍Futures are just flickering between red and green ahead of the Fed’s latest minutes later today and the JOLTs jobs data later this week.

Here’s my playbook.

When in doubt, zoom out

Garth Brooks originally released his iconic song, Friends in Low Places, in 1990 when it shot to number one on the charts in just 8 weeks.

The words ring as true today as they did 32 years ago, only with the stock markets.

Investors who dismiss tech are making a potentially catastrophic mistake for reasons not 1 in 100 understands.

The fabulous Maria Bartiromo asked me about that earlier today as we head into earnings and here’s what I had to say. (Watch)

Recession, what is there to debate??!!

Prices are falling again which is great save one thing … they’re falling because the markets are pricing in a recession. In fact, oil prices have dropped under $100 a barrel for the first time since May 11th. (Read)

One report I’ve seen says $65 a barrel is possible, but I am not certain that’s true barring a change in presidential policy and/or new supply.

With the exception of that, I still think $150 is possible, but the pressure is mounting on the President’s failed policies as Americans get crushed by high energy prices.

Owning the “biggies” – as in big oil – makes all kinds of sense, especially if you’re keen to harvest dividends and growth.

Not from Dino juice like everybody thinks, but from alternative energy they’re already quietly investing in. (Like this one)

Growing revenues @ 80%+ a year

Investors can’t sell stocks fast enough if you believe the numbers – and I do. Those who stay in do much better over time.

What’s worth buying?

Stuff that makes the world go ‘round.

Take cybersecurity, for example. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is a popular choice because it’s growing at 29% a year, has a $6.9 billion backlog, and a 40% profit margin.

I prefer another stock at the moment, though. Revenues are growing at 60%+, margins are expanding, and the company’s annual recurring revenue may track at 80%+ in the next 36 months. Oh, and it’s got a 77% gross margin that’ll grow recession or not. (Get the stock in our model portfolio now)

Ben & Jerry’s goes to court

Ben & Jerry’s ice cream sold to Unilever 22 years ago for a cool $326 million and things were hunky-dory. Now apparently, not.

The firm, long known for its stand on social justice is suing in Federal Court to block the sale of Ben & Jerry’s trademark and brand rights to a local Israeli franchisee. (Read)

Why you should care: ESG investing has become popular in recent years as investors conclude that the way to force change is via the inside. It’s flawed and super dangerous, but that’s a story for another time.

What catches my eye in this instance is that Ben & Jerry’s directors have resorted to the court system to get their way rather than activism or even internal management via the parent company.

The situation strikes me as a lot like Alaska Airlines buying Virgin America in 2016 for $4 billion. Sir Richard Branson, who founded Virgin noted at the time that, “Big companies often do this: They buy something because it’s doing so well, and then they castrate it.”

Could it be that Ben & Jerry’s is having a moment or merely a tantrum?

27 1/2 investing ideas in 90 minutes

Thanks to everyone in the One Bar Ahead™ family who attended last night’s “Chalk Talk.” You ROCK!!!

Last night’s presentation and the following Q&A session is now available in the archives if you missed it or want to watch it again. You can access that (here).

If you’re wondering what all the fuss is about and you’re wondering:

Where prices go from here … is this market too volatile … which stocks are worth the risk … gold … big oil … which companies to buy right now to defend against a recession … crypto … biotech hots … and more.

Consider joining the One Bar Ahead™ Family. (Do that now)