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☕ Three stocks to help set up a great second half of the year

Jul 01, 2024

Good morning! 👋

The markets are off to a split start as we charge into yet another holiday-shortened trading week. This time for the 4th of July.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Every investor faces 3 challenges this week

People constantly make mountains out of molehills because they feel like they have to do “something” in the markets at all times.

Not so.

Especially ahead of holidays.

In fact, there are just three simple decisions. (Watch)

#3 is almost always my favorite.

2 – My new year-end target & why I think we’ll get there

Unlike most Wall Street analysts, I don’t pick price targets out of thin air.

In fact, there’s a lot of math that goes into ‘em.

I believe that the S&P 500 will finish the year at 5,751.51, roughly another 5.3% higher from where it’s trading as I type.

Buying these stocks could help make for a strong second half of the year. (Watch)

What makes me say so?

Three reasons:

Structural imbalance between labor and innovation (which parallels two prior periods in market history – the 50s and the 90s).
Inflation will come down but feeling that in your wallet may not, at least not immediately anyway.
$3-5T on the sidelines that’s still looking for a home, much of which is now trapped and subject to FOMO (again).

OBAers: Keep an eye on your email. We’re burning the midnight oil to get the July issue out on Wednesday so that the team can enjoy a long, well-deserved weekend. Topics include a mid-year update, a newly prioritized “buy” list using a tool that’ll help you see dividend yield in a new light and more. (Learn more if you’re not on board and would potentially like to be)

3 – Trading the Roaring Kitty

Keith Gill – aka the Roaring Kitty – appears to be learning some hard lessons about how the markets actually work.

Both GME and CHWY are getting the air sucked out of ‘em.

Sadly, and if history is any guide, my guess is that loads of individual retail traders in search of a quick buck are feeling the pain.

CNBC reports that Gill has been hit with a new class-action lawsuit filed Friday alleging that he engaged in securities fraud by manipulating GME’s price through online influence peddling. (Read)

The pattern – and the one pros are using at this stage of the game – is to let him do his thing then “fade” the rally by taking those foolish or naive enough to pile in for an express ride down.

Remember, think like a shark, not a minnow.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Millions of individuals who think they’re investing often find out the hard way that they’ve been speculating. Do NOT make that mistake and do NOT play this game unless you’ve got money to burn. Find a mentor, get an education, learn how the markets really work... then use the right tactics to control risk along the way. If that’s me, I’m honored. If not, that’s okay, too!

4 – The end of Boeing as we know it or...

Boeing is in the news again and for all the wrong reasons.

First, it’s facing criminal charges and being urged to plead guilty in a sweetheart deal. (Read) At the same time, the company has agreed to buy Spirit AeroSystems for $4.7B to address safety concerns. (Read)

I don’t think either will amount to a hill of beans.

The company’s trouble started the moment it began prioritizing profits over people. And that’s not something you can unwind at the touch of a button.

My understanding is that the public whistleblower commentary we know about positively pales in comparison to the stuff we don’t. I won’t ride in a Boeing aircraft at this point unless I absolutely must, and I know I’m not alone in my thinking.

Buying Spirit also strikes me as a non-starter.

Boeing can’t manage its own operations so suddenly we’re supposed to believe that buying/absorbing and integrating a key supplier is something they can accomplish. With the same set of executives?

Pffft.

$150.

Putskies or bearish spreads.

5 – El Zucko strikes again and the EU doesn’t like it

Meta launched a service euphemistically called “Subscription for no ads” last year. (Read)

MyPOV then and now is that it’s the digital version of “pay up or else.”

The EU could hit Meta with penalties and fines equivalent to 10% of global annual revenue under the Digital Markets Act if the probe finds the company acted badly and the provisional findings are confirmed. (Read) That’s roughly $13.5B based on 2023 numbers.

MyPOV: Call me crazy, but every time Team Zuck says they didn’t do something, there’s almost always proof they did or intended to. I’m not interested and won’t touch the stock but respect those who do.