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☕ Stocks snap an (engineered) losing streak

Jan 03, 2025

Good morning! 👋

Stocks are firmly green across the board today in the early going as I type.

Excellent for two reasons.

First, the buying proves the markets are working normally.

And second, there’s still plenty of hungry money that wants to go to work.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise.

I told you just ahead of Christmas that traders were itching to engineer a rug pull by year end to get their mitts on the right names (because many of ‘em got caught offsides in 2024). And I encouraged you to get your “buy list” ready.

I know I sound like a broken record but at the risk of doing so again…

… Chaos creates opportunity.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Tesla “missed” - with records set?!?!

Not.

Tesla announced Q4 delivery numbers of 495.6k, a few thousand below whisper numbers of ~500k. (Read)

Predictably, the weak money & nervous hands sold.

I hope you didn’t fall for it.

The real story is very different.

Team Musk achieved record delivery and energy deployment figures which, btw, reflect a 243% YoY increase. Sales in China also hit a record, jumping 12.8% to a high of 83,000 units last month.

This is not a company that’s in trouble by any stretch of the imagination.

I remain focused on AI, on growth, subscriptions, robotics, energy and more… substantially of which is coming together in ways most investors still don’t understand.

Remember… the strong feed when the meek retreat.

MyPOV: And if you did get shaken out or chickened out, watch this video which I recorded at 0-dark 30 before my run earlier today. You might wanna give something a thought… or two. (Watch)

Tesla is still 3-5X from here imho.

Meanwhile, continue to short or avoid Stellantis and Rivian – both of which are having their own challenges.

2 – Nippon Steel just dodged a bullet

President Biden has apparently blocked Nippon Steel’s takeover of US Steel. (Read)

Nippon Steel just dodged a bullet.

The company isn’t well enough run and doesn’t have deep enough pockets to stay the course. I told you the deal was doomed from the get go when I encouraged investors to take the money and run. (See #2)

Short or putskies on US Steel and, now Nippon Steel too if you have access to the Japanese exchange.

Yudantaiteki (油断大敵) – false security is dangerous enemy!

3 – Another case of “buy the best, ignore the rest”

I’ve made no bones about my preference for companies re-writing the rule books and making what billionaire Peter Thiel calls “Zero to One” changes rather than those that are simply “n+1” and making a better mousetrap.

Like Walmart, which is kicking other grocers’ asteroids.

Shares have returned 73.02% over the past 12 months versus the S&P 500 which turned in 26.01% over the same time frame.

Keith’s Investing Tip: The assault on conventional retail continues and it’s important you know where your bread is buttered if you want to keep up as an investor. Make no bones about it, Amazon is under attack from all sides. Folks who own it best pay careful attention.

Hopefully you’ve got this covered and I’m preachin’ to the choir so to speak. If not, you know where to find me.

4 – Should you worry about Apple in China?

Reports are saying that shipments of Apple smartphones fell 6% YoY in Q3 2024 in China whilst Huawei devices were up 24% YoY. (Read)

Should you be worried?

I’m not.

Apple’s stores are still packed.
The ecosystem is stronger than ever and growing.
Services are now a $100B+ undertaking.
20-25% of the planet will access some form of AI through an Apple device within the next 5 years.
The company is making great strides in India which is almost entirely untapped territory for Team Cook.
The ongoing healthcare pivot I brought to the world’s attention in 2014 is now well underway and will be worth 2 – 4X the entire iPhone market.

5 - JetBlue’s default setting is “Delayed”

The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) fined JetBlue Airways $2 million for "chronically delayed flights" on four routes between June 2022 and November 2023. (Read)

This is the first fine of its kind.

And yep, airlines are still a terrible investment.

Planes, not so much.

Just don’t pick Boeing for cryin’ out loud.