Straight to your inbox from Keith himself!

*Trusted by tens of thousands of savvy investors and traders around the world every day

☕ Should you buy Nvidia ahead of earnings?

Nov 19, 2024

Good morning! 👋

Futures fell earlier today after Russia signaled increased readiness for a nuclear strike. (Read)

But the Nasdaq has already gone “green" as traders start to focus on Nvidia. The S&P 500 may, just may even be green as well by the time you read this.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Defense stocks are still a no-brainer

We’ve talked about this from the moment I said in early 2021 that Russia would eventually go “hot” in Ukraine.

My favorite choice, LMT, has returned 16.41% since then.

Sadly, war, terrorism and ugliness remain a growth industry.

What to do now?

Going to the sidelines or hedging is certainly an option but, if you do so, you are guessing the unguessable… and that’s not an investment strategy. It’s speculation.

My suggestion is to stay in the game if at all possible and despite the fact that the situation could get far nastier than any of us would care to imagine.

History shows that this will ultimately pass and those who invest accordingly will be better off for the experience. In fact, some of the best returns come from investing at the worse possible moments, points a mentor of mine referred to as “maximum pessimism.”

Meanwhile, US Treasuries, gold and the USD will likely run if tensions escalate further.

Btw, if you are interested in hedging – and a lot of people are this morning - I have written something that might help, Your 5 Minute Guide to Hedging. You can buy that right now if you’d like. If you’re an OBAer, please visit the OBA Portal; it’s included for free as part of your membership.

2 – Walmart’s got it out for Amazon

Team Bentonville reported a double beat this morning – meaning the company beat top and bottom-line estimates. Handily, I might add. (Read)

EPS of $0.58 vs expectations of $0.53
Revenue of $169.59 billion vs expectations of $167.72 billion
Revenue increased 5.5% YoY
Global eCommerce sales increased 27% YoY
Raised guidance

I suggested in Sunday’s breezy ocean video that the key would be continued online growth, and that’s exactly what we got.

Even better, the company's e-commerce business is nearing profitability, with 30% of U.S. orders including an extra fee for faster delivery, such as within one or three hours. Walmart’s private-brand penetration rose 80 basis points as it doubled down with new lines like ‘Bettergoods’.

Amazon is in deep kimchi.

Walmart, btw, has returned 31.74% since June 2024 when I bought it to the One Bar Ahead® Family’s attention versus 8.81% from Amazon which I have repeatedly said to avoid or risk falling behind. The S&P 500, by comparison, has returned 9.67% over the same time frame.

MyPOV: If your broker or financial adviser isn’t “in to win” and pointing out opportunities like this regularly, chances are good you’re playing not to lose, meaning that you’re more concerned about diversification than you are about profits. Nothing wrong with that if it’s your cuppa tea. Just keep in mind that the world’s best investors – think Buffett, Baron, Cohen and Templeton - place very concentrated bets because they’re “in to win” – which is why I repeatedly encourage you to do the same thing. I’ll be here if you’d like some help.

3 – Should you buy Nvidia ahead of earnings?

That’s the question I’m hearing from many this morning.

Respectfully, let me flip that around… give me one rock-solid reason not to.

Nvidia’s got an 86% market share, the company’s Blackwell GPUs are sold out for at least the next 12 months and there’s news this morning that it’s partnered with Google to develop quantum computing processors. (Read)

Keith’s Investing Tip: Many aspiring investors think they’ve got to “time” earnings announcements but that’s increasingly a fool’s errand in today's markets. The better path – and one that’s considerably more profitable over time – is to use rock solid tactics as a way of maximizing profit potential AND minimizing risk.

4 – Super Micro 2.0

Super Micro Computer is up 25.67% as I type this morning on news that BDO will be the new auditor, and that company has provided a plan to the Nasdaq detailing how it will remain in compliance with the exchange. (Read)

Three things come to mind.

Shares fell out of bed earlier this year when the company's prior auditor, EY, resigned in October. A report from noted short-seller Hindenburg Research alleging accounting manipulation didn’t help much. So, bottom line something stinks.
BDO better have one heckuva magic wand if it’s going to get to the bottom of whatever is going on. My guess is there will be a massive “restatement” of earnings etc, and that’s putting it mildly.
There are bigger, better fish to fry… none of which have accounting problems.

If you’re up for a punt, Super Micro shares could be interesting but please do so with your eyes wide open. The potential for manipulation is extreme… and I can almost guarantee you the big money has the edge here.

5 – A big wakeup call for crypto

Many proponents insist that crypto is a safe-haven asset.

If that were true, it ought be running sharply higher this morning on the heels of Putin’s increased willingness to use nuclear weapons. But it’s not.

Instead, US Treasuries, the USD, the Japanese Yen, the Swissy (Swiss Franc) and gold… all classic safe-haven bets… are on the bid, meaning buyers are running to ‘em.

Bitcoin has just “ticked” higher a skosh. Ethereum, widely regarded as the “other” contender, is actually down as I type.

There is no doubt in my mind that the world is already well on the way to digital currency. Nor is there any doubt to my way of thinking that blockchain technology is very investable. Bitcoin or any other crypto, not so much.

The real winner is very likely some version of the digital renminbi (e-CNY) which is already in use in 29 pilot areas including Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen.

People view bitcoin as being a digital alternative to the dollar but what they fail to take into consideration is that China’s already well down the road and that Beijing views the e-CNY as an alternative to both the USD and bitcoin.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the Dragon is coming to dinner. The only decision you’ve got to make as an investor is whether to be at the table or on the menu.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Foreigners can buy the e-CNY, btw. You just need to live in one of the pilot areas… for now.