☕ Palantir may hit $40 today, should you take profits? 🤔

Good morning! 👋 

What d’ya know... 

Good news is actually good news and the markets like that!  

At least for now anyway. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Monster jobs report takeaways 

Economists missed by a country mile. 

Again. 

They expected 150,000 jobs but the report came in at 254,000. (Read) 

That’s neither here nor there, really. 

Fed data is more cooked than a Christmas goose. 

What you want to focus on and the key takeaway for investors is that the report virtually guarantees the Fed slows down the pace at which it reduces interest rates. 

The other thing that stands out is that job creation took a defined slant towards full time positions rather than part timers. It’s been a while since we’ve seen that. 

And not to beat a dead horse here or be a spoilsport... but keep in mind that Chairman Powell just said earlier this week that the pace of jobs creation has “clearly cooled” over the past year. 

No wonder he’s gotta “recalibrate.”  

His words, not mine. 🤦 

2 – Rivian set for a quick pop?

Rivian slashed its production forecast which, as you might expect, totally overshadowed missed Q3 deliveries. (Read) 

Just like they did with Tesla, analysts got it wrong. 

I think the stock could set up for a quick turnaround. 

The reduced guidance is apparently due to a part shortage stemming from supplier troubles.  

Rivian didn’t make which part clear, nor the supplier involved so I’m not sure if we’re talking something critical or a $0.50 part that fits into a bigger component, though. 

The trader in me is tempted.

Calls – a bet that the stock could move higher – might be the way to go. 

But the investor in me still won’t touch the stock itself. Shares are down 50% YTD and the company’s “cash burn” - meaning how much money they’re using to operate - is significant.  

Tesla remains a contrast in opposites. 

Rivian stock has lost ~90% since IPO while Tesla has returned ~19,623% since going public. 

Three guesses which one I prefer and the first two don’t count. 

I do love Rivian’s design, though. 

3 – Another airline in for a rough landing but still trying to “SAVE” face

I can’t say I’m surprised... airlines are notoriously tough stocks to own. 

SAVE – yeah, that’s the ticker here and you can’t make this stuff up – was down 32.59% premarket, down 86.30% YTD and still down 24.94% this morning. 

The backdoor buzz is that Spirit Airlines is negotiating bankruptcy options with bondholders (Read) 

No word on whether or not they’ll change the ticker. 

4 – Palantir may hit $40 today, should you take profits? 🤔 

They said Palantir was... 

...an imposter 

...vaporware 

... a poser. 

In my best Dr. Evil voice, muuuuuaaaaahhhhhaaaaaaa. 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see it take out $40 today, perhaps even by the time you read this. 

And from there? 

Here’s what I told Liz Claman recently. (Watch) 

Quite a few folks are wondering if they should take profits? 

That depends. 

• What’s YOUR time horizon? 

• What tactics can YOU use to stay in the game? 

• Have YOU met specific financial goals or targets? 

• What would YOU replace it with? 

Investing isn’t a competition, so it’s important not to get sucked into that debate which, not surprisingly, is already raging this morning on social media.  

Btw, these are all things we talk about regularly with the One Bar Ahead™ Family, many of whom are happily taking profits AND staying in the game at the same time. The right tactics can make all the difference. (You can join ‘em anytime if that’s of interest – the October issue comes out later today, in fact) 

5 – Let’s be clear, the strike might be over 

I learned a long time ago that you never count your chickens before they hatch, particularly when it comes to investing. 

Headlines trumpeting that the US port strike is over are a great example of what I’m talking about. It’s a tentative agreement stipulating a 62% wage increase over 6 years. (Read) 

What's more, the strike isn’t over... just pushed to the sidelines for 90 days – until January - at which point it’s back on if there’s no agreement reached by then. 

Much of the fuss is about wages – which I get because it’s hard work – but the union is also seeking protection against automation. 

Good luck with that. 

My guess is that we’ll see the emergence of new, privately operated, entirely automated US port facilities within the decade. 

It's not like there isn’t precedent. 

Both the Maasvlakte II terminal in the Port of Rotterdam and the APM Terminals facility in Maasvlakte, Netherlands are both fully automated – using a combination of Automated Guided Vehicles (AGVs), Automated Stacking Cranes (ASCs), and Automated Quay Cranes (AQCs) to streamline operations and increase efficiency. 

There are already more than 40 fully or partially automated ports operating worldwide and $10B already invested. 

Any takers that this is on Musk’s radar??!! 

Some of the companies that could make this interesting and potentially very profitable include Konecranes, ABB, Cargotec Corp (Kalmar division) and, of course, Tesla itself. 

Bottom Line  

People get so consumed in the market’s minor squiggles that they lose track of the big picture. 

Not surprisingly that works against them. 

Don’t “major” in “minor” stuff. 

You got this – I promise! 

Let’s finish the week strong. 

Keith 😊