☕ Palantir is now an 11+ bagger
Dec 03, 2024Good morning! 👋
The indices are split in early going as the situation in South Korea roils global markets. My guts and experience suggest they’d be up otherwise.
It’s an important reminder to focus on what you can control – like buying great stocks, using the right tactics etc. – rather than worrying about risks you can’t.
Here’s my playbook.
1 – Palantir tags $70
Just ~$15 away from the $85 target I set in early October to an astonished Stuart Varney on national TV when the dang stock was trading just below $40. (Watch)
Two of the latest developments include:
- The Federal RAMP which authorizes Palantir to provide any of its products to the U.S. government, even for the most confidential work. (Read)
- Ferrari’s F1 Team, which has been a Palantir partner since 2017, recently released a new video highlighting driver Charles Leclerc together with Forward Deployed Palantir Engineer Jack Dobson. (Watch)
Palantir has returned a staggering 300%+ in 2024 while the S&P 500 has handed in a respectable 26.55% over the same time frame, proving yet again why I insist you “buy the best and ignore the rest.”
I sure hope you’re on board and, if not, that you understand how to make that happen in such a way that you maximize profit potential AND minimize risk at the same time. I’ll be here if you’d like to learn, btw.
$100 isn’t outta the question nor all that unreasonable if it takes out $85, btw.
2 – What could possibly go wrong, other than everything?
BlackRock, the world’s largest money manager, will acquire HPS Investment Partners for $12 billion in stock to expand its private credit business. (Read)
The transaction will create a private credit platform managing $220 billion in assets, combining BlackRock’s existing scale with HPS’s $148 billion in AUM.
The acquisition comes during a boom in the private credit market, with comparable firms like seeing significant 2024 gains.
I don’t like it one bit.
The situation reminds me of credit derivatives that allowed risk to build up outside the regulated banking system and which led to the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-2009.
What could possibly go wrong, other than everything??!!! 🤦️
3 – The real risk in Musk’s 2nd pay package rejection
72% of Tesla shareholders twice voted in favour of Musk’s $56B pay package. Yet, Delaware judge Kathaleen McCormick declined to reinstate it anyway, instead approving a $345M attorney award fee. (Read)
I couldn’t particularly care about the pay package itself which, btw, may be worth as much as $101B today according to various estimates being batted around.
The risk – if the ruling stands – is that other CEOs will view it as an additional incentive to go private.
Don’t make the mistake of thinking this isn’t a “big deal.”
The number of publicly listed firms in the US today is less than half of what it was in 1996 – that catches a lot of people by surprise.
Fewer public companies mean fewer places to invest.
Imagine how different your portfolio and your wealth would be if there were no Palantirs, no Nvidias and no Apples just to pick three names at random.
Hardly an appealing thought, eh?
4 – Huang’s AI warning (and the opportunity it presents)
CEO Jensen Huang said during a trip to Hong Kong over the weekend that current AI systems are still several years away from reaching a point of reliability where users can "largely trust" their outputs. (Read)
Then in the same breath, he noted that increasing computational power is crucial for progress.
I agree.
Two thoughts come to mind.
- More hardware – hello Nvidia and AMD!
- Quantum computing
Keith’s Investing Tip: At the risk of sounding like a broken record, AI is still very early innings. History suggests that there are likely 10-15 “Nvidias” out there right now in various stages of maturity. The One Bar Ahead® Family is tracking and on board with several, in fact. If you’ve got this covered, awesome… every investor should but very few do. If not and you’d like some help, I’d like to toss my hat in the ring.
5 – Goodbye to one of the good guys
NYSE legend Art Cashin has passed away. (Read)
I crossed paths with him a few times over the years and he was always most gracious.
His comments made a world of difference to me.
Still do.
In fact, one of my favorite Fitz Witz is thanks to Cashin who mentioned to me during a brief discussion at the exchange on a really rough day that “those who react [to the markets] immediately rarely do well.”
To which I add, “Investing is not a game of rushed decisions.”
RIP, my friend.
Bottom Line
You don't need anybody's permission to change your life especially when it comes to investing.
So what the fruit loops are you waiting for?
You got this - I promise.
Keith 😃
