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☕️ Palantir: I hope you paid attention and took action

Feb 20, 2025

Good morning! 👋

We arrived back in the PNW after a wonderful few days at the Las Vegas MoneyShow with more than 1,000 like-minded investors and traders.

Thank YOU to everyone who made the trip and to all who have let us know they’ll make the journey next time around. 😀 💯

Let’s get after it!

The S&P 500 is pulling back from intraday and closing records for the 2^nd day in a row as I type in early going.

Do your best to give the headline mongers a wide berth.

You will not only have a far more pleasant day, but chances are, a far more profitable one, too!

I say that because you will be able to apply all that mental energy to finding the next great opportunities, building up dividend income, capturing profits and more. Basically, whatever you fancy that keeps you and your money moving forward.

Investing in optimism beats cowering in pessimism any day of the week!

Here’s my playbook.

1 – No, Walmart is not in trouble, here’s why

Walmart reported a “double beat” – meaning the company beat revenue and earnings estimates (Read)

Earnings per share: 66 cents adjusted vs 64 cents expected
Revenue: $180.55 billion vs. $180.01 billion expected

What’s more CFO John David Rainey says consumer spending patterns are “steady” without any sharp changes.

So why are shares down?

Because the go-fast crowd – which has the attention span of a gnat – is focused on the fact that the company warned that profit growth will slow despite rising sales.

If you’re tempted to throw the baby out with the bathwater, don’t.

E-commerce, which you’ve heard me talk about continuously, is up 20%.
Walmart also raised its annual dividend 13% to $0.94 per share, marking the 52^nd year of consecutive dividend increases.

Hooyah!

2 – Palantir: I hope you paid attention

I told the One Bar Ahead® Family to take some money off the table last week to pre-emptively reduce risk ahead of a potential downside attack. Then, I reiterated that message in Las Vegas again earlier this week.

Right on cue.

Remember how this game is played.

You are betting on a great company when you buy shares, but Wall Street is betting on or against you. They could give a rat’s you know what about the company itself especially since so many missed the run to begin with.

This morning the clickbait artists have piled on with their unique brand of “or else” storytelling using sensationalist language intended to attract your eyeballs, boost their advertising revenues and sell premium memberships etc. Not make you money.

For example:

CNBC says “retail traders’ latest cult trade starts to unwind.” (Read)
AOL via the Motley Fool is quoting the “Dean of Valuation” – the implication is it’s expensive and you’re being warned about it - an argument we’ve put to bed many times over. (Read)
Pune.news is reporting that the Pentagon’s budget cuts “Threaten Palantir’s Future.” (Read)

Puuuuleeeeaaase.

The stock has returned ~1,400%+ from ~$6.50 a share a few years ago even after all the selling. If you’re worried about 15% in the past 5 days, you need to take a hard look in the mirror. 🤷🏻‍

The AI/Big Data/Defense/Efficiency play that is Palantir’s wheelhouse is getting stronger by the day.

**OBAers: If you took my suggestions and followed along with the put options I suggested, Sell to Close those now. Smiling is optional (pun absolutely intended). 😏

3 - MSFT Quantum Computing = game on

Microsoft has debuted a new quantum computing chip (Read)

Game on.

This validates the playing field.

Btw, my favorite quantum stock has returned 279.5% since I brought it to the OBA Family’s attention versus the S&P 500 which has logged 25.38% over the same time period. The other has returned roughly 20% and is accelerating at a time when the SPY, a popular ETF choice has returned 3.43%.

Hopefully, you’ve got a toe in the water, too.

4 – Fed worried about inflation 🤦‍♂️

This is rich. (Read)

Here’s a short list of everything the Fed actually knows about inflation:

…

Sigh.

5 – Alibaba pops after e-commerce and cloud push sales

I have no desire whatsoever to own Alibaba at the moment but celebrate those who do.

The company reported a sharp profit jump from both e-commerce and cloud computing. (Read)

It’s an important touch point that the world is changing and validates Digitalization, the largest of the “5Ds” we use to guide our thinking – each of which is backed by at least $1T in spending that will happen practically no matter what the Fed does next, no matter who’s in the White House or how Wall Street tries to hijack the markets in its own interest.

Hopefully, you’ve got some sort of similar big-picture framework in place to help guide your investing process. If not, you know where to find me.