☕️ Is the bottom in and where do markets go from here?
Apr 23, 2025Howdy! 👋
I’ve been telling you three things for weeks…
- Bottoming is a process and there will be no “all clear” sign
- That the markets will be gone like a rocket if there’s even a whiff of tariff certainty
- To invest in optimism rather than cower in fear
I hope you’ve paid attention and that you’re still in the game.
The markets are up in early going after the President has apparently softened his stance on tariffs and Chinese-related tariffs specifically.
Now… the big enchilada.
Can the rally stick?
There are obviously no guarantees, but I think the answer is increasingly tilting in favor of “yes.”
To be fair, I suspect the markets will have one or two more additional shocks ahead, particularly as China comes to the table. So, it makes sense to prepare for that.
Keep your “buy list” handy and – based on what we talk about constantly – it ought to be a very short, very selective list at this point.
The next generation of millionaires is being created right now.
And, frankly, I want you to be on it!
Here’s my playbook.
1 – Why grey swans are different
I sat down for a wonderful discussion with my friend and colleague, the super sharp Scott “the Cow Guy” Shellady – so named for his colorful cow themed jackets.
Some folks think he’s just being goofy, but outlandish jackets helped top traders identify each other easily in the chaos of old-school trading pits. Then use hand signals to communicate their orders from across the room. I miss those days, but that’s a story for another time.
Anyway, Scott and I had a discussion about “grey swans” and what they mean for your money. Enjoy! (Watch)
2 – Musk got the message
As widely expected, Tesla missed numbers. (Read)
Also as expected, the rally came this morning.
Why?
Because Unka Elon got the message.
Several actually.
Call me crazy but I still think the stock will be 3-5X by the end of the decade. Perhaps a lot sooner if he gets back in the driver’s seat – pun absolutely intended. Robotics, AI, energy - all could be worth more each than the entire company is now as a whole.
I haven’t sold a single share and, in fact, used the downturn to buy more.
Hope you did, too. 💯
Grinning ear to ear this morning, btw, is optional but highly encouraged!
3 – Boeing’s hat trick
Boeing posted a Q1 improvement—shrinking its loss from $355M to just $31M and surprising Wall Street with a lighter cash burn.
Plane deliveries are up nearly 60%, and CEO Kelly Ortberg says the company is seeking FAA approval to ramp 737 Max output to 42 jets/month. (Read)
Good on ‘em!
Now comes the tough part.
This is a textbook case of “watch the narrative, trade the fundamentals.” BA may rally short-term on production and revenue beats, but long-term conviction (and success) depends on how well it will navigate trade policy, safety, and internal culture rebuilds.
LEAPs calls to keep cost and risk down might be the move here.
Hmmm.
Meanwhile, I may just have to pass the “bug in search of a windshield” moniker to Meta or Google, both of which stand to take multi-billion-dollar hits because of a drop in advertising from brands like Temu and Shein as tariffs bite. 🤦
4 – US food stocks could go hungry, save one
The FDA just dropped a regulatory bomb: petroleum-based dyes—like Red 40 and Yellow 5—are out by end of 2026. (Read)
Good riddance!
I’ve been a lifelong athlete and good nutrition is critical to sustained high performance so this hits home for me.
It is very, very difficult to eat clean in this country with all the crap – and no I will not mince words – that has been stuffed into our bodies in the name of “food science” and higher profits.
Most of what passes for nutrition in the US these days is just chemistry in a box. Now those chickens are coming home to roost – and they’re glow in the dark.
PepsiCo (PEP), General Mills (GIS), and WK Kellogg (KLG) are about to learn that reformulating isn’t just expensive—it’s brand poison. Consumers didn’t bite when Trix tried to go natural in 2017, and they’re not likely to nibble now unless Big Food learns how to make clean taste good.
McCormick (MKC) could stand to benefit.
As a top supplier of natural colorings and flavor solutions, it’s already seeing rising demand. McCormick isn’t reacting—they’re leading. The more “Big Food” scrambles, the more MKC becomes a must-have partner.
Pairs trade idea: Long McCormick into the scramble and simultaneously short GIS, Kellogg or Pepsi
Every chef worth their salt knows that when flavor rules, margins do too.
5 – 3M beats, should you buy it?
3M beat expectations with a 10% jump in EPS, stronger margins and a $1.7B return to shareholders. (Read)
They’re innovating too—62 new products launched in Q1, a 60% YoY increase.
Not bad.
This is a company that quietly powers daily life. From Scotch tape to sticky notes to water-resistant sandpaper, 3M has launched thousands of products over the past 109 years.
Chances are you’ve got a few in your home—I know we do.
Should you buy it 3M?
Maybe if you like watching grass grow… and there’s nothing wrong with that if that’s your deal, btw.
3M is an “n+1” choice making GREAT products that are all better iterations of what’s already out there for the most part. However, it’s low on the “gee-whiz” meter.
I prioritize “Zero to One” choices with the potential to change the world.
Nvidia’s a great example… having returned 61,271% over the past 20 years. Nothing against 3M, but the company turned in 290.92% over the same time frame. The S&P 500, by comparison, turned in 373.14% according to Koyfin as I type this morning.
Let’s put that in context.
Every $1,000 invested in Nvidia 20 years ago would be worth $613,710 today.
Every $1,000 invested in the S&P 500 20 years ago would be worth $4,731.
And the same $1,000 invested in 3m?
Just $3,909.
Keith’s Investing Tip: There is very clearly a role for Steady Eddie stocks in your portfolio; just don’t make the mistake of thinking you’ll have a runner on your hands if that’s what the stock is known for.
Btw, history suggests there are 10-15 “Nvidias” out there right now. If you’ve got a handle on this and know which stocks to buy, excellent! On the other hand, if you’d like some help finding ‘em, I’ll be here.
Bottom Line
People have doubts about themselves, about the markets, about life.
That’s normal.
However, that’s also why I insist you MAKE it a great day.
Don't let anybody or anything stop you.
Not in life.
Certainly not in the markets.
You got this — I promise!
Keith 😀
