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☕ Is it too late to buy Palantir?

Feb 07, 2025

Howdy! 👋

The markets are green as I type in the early going which make sense given that the US economy added just 143,000 jobs and unemployment fell to 4%. Traders have decided for a New York minute that this gives the Fed a reason to look favorably at rates.

You and I both know that’s not true for reasons we have talked about many times but, hey, we’ll play along. My guess is they’ll be red by the time you read this and I say that because the US 10 Year yield is up which means risk is rising at least as they see it.

Makes sense.

It is Friday and it is Super Bowl Weekend.

Traders are typically more skittish than a squirrel on an electric fence so they’re going to want to take money off the table preemptively to guard against something untoward happening at the game. So called “event risk.”

MyPOV?

Be in to win or you won’t… win.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Eagles vs. Chiefs… and your portfolio?

People love narratives and stories; whether they’re true or not doesn’t really matter. Especially when it comes to the “Super Bowl” Indicator.

And yes, that’s a thing for those of us of a certain – ahem – vintage.

It’s a long running but totally unscientific market legend that – if believed – suggests the Super Bowl’s outcome will predict the stock market’s performance for the year.

If a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) wins – this year the Philadelphia Eagles - markets will rise for the rest of the year. If a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins – this year the Kansas City Chiefs - the markets will decline.

Like many famous stock market truisms, there is an element of correlation but not causation, particularly in the early years after the Super Bowl was introduced in 1967. But, as with any coincidental pattern, the indicator has become less reliable over time.

Got a favorite team?

2 – Why can’t Amazon handle currencies?

Amazon reported Q4 earnings. (Read)

Solid numbers all around but guidance was for the slowest growth on record.

EPS: $1.86 vs. $1.49 expected
Revenue: $187.79 billion vs. $187.30 billion expected
Guidance: $151B–$155.5B vs. $158.5B expected
Expected growth: 5%–9%, the slowest on record

As usual, there’s more to the story when you read between the lines.

Team Jassy is blaming forex rates for what they see as an unusually, large unfavorable impact in Q1 but that’s like saying the dog will eat the company’s homework.

What this suggests to me is that Amazon’s treasury department didn’t or hasn’t hedged currencies properly which is, frankly, astonishing given how global the company is.

Contrast that with Microsoft, which sees just a 1-point decline from currencies. Or an airline which constantly hedges fuel, currencies and a whole lot more. Apple runs a tight currency playbook, too.

On a positive note, CEO Andy Jassy did mention that Palantir is leveraging Amazon’s Nova GenAI models to cut AI costs and drive adoption across Palantir’s platforms.

At least somebody over there is thinking ahead.

I’m itching to buy puts – a bet that AMZN will decline – but have not yet because Wall Street is keen to defend the stock and I’m not interested in taking on a fight I can’t win.

There are plenty of other fish in the sea, so to speak.

3 – Too late to buy Palantir?

Palantir has surged ~33% since the release of its Q4 earnings and is currently trading at $111.28 as I type this morning. (Read, slowly if you must).

It’s returned ~380.59% (at $113.42 where it’s trading as I type) over the past 12 months versus 21.40% from the S&P 500, a ~17.78 to 1 performance advantage.

This means that Palantir now has a market cap of ~$256.1B as I type… which, to put this in context, is bigger than McDonald’s ($210.4B), Walt Disney ($201.2B) and Starbucks ($128.0B).

It’s fashionable to talk about how “the game” is changing when it comes to tech and to companies like Palantir but that’s a dead giveaway in my mind that the person saying so has missed or risks missing the boat.

The game has already changed and if you’re not investing with this in mind, I urge you to rethink that premise.

The future is rushing towards us like a freight train; the only decision you need to make is get on board or get plowed over.

Speaking of which, is it too late?

Only if you listen to Wall Street’s bedtime stories – you know, valuations, revenues, earnings justification and whatever financial fairy tales they tell themselves and their clients to excuse why they’ve missed the run… again.

Use the right tactics, though.

Buying blindly is something you do in Las Vegas, not the stock market. Play smart and there’s still plenty of room to run.

4 – Tesla sales: wrong focus if you’re a serious investor

Headlines this morning are letting you know in no uncertain terms that Tesla’s reported an 11.5% decline in China EV sales in January YoY. (Read)

Right on cue.

Get over it if you’re tempted by the clickbait.

Tesla isn’t just a car company—just like Apple isn’t just about computers or Amazon isn’t just about books. Hasn’t been for years.

I’ll go one step further: Within five years, cars may be less than 60% of Tesla’s revenue. In ten? Likely under 50%, and that’s if I’m only half correct!

Keith’s Investing Tip: Investors fail repeatedly because they lack the long-term vision to steer clear of short-term chaos, hype and, honestly, bull feathers, a word I’m using because the one I want to insert isn’t family friendly! 🤦‍

5 – It’s issue Friday

I’m super excited because it’s “issue Friday” and that means the February edition of One Bar Ahead®, our research magazine for savvy individual investors, will be headed your way later today.

This month we’re taking a hard look at cybersecurity and a new “old” recommendation that’s poised to run far higher even though it’s already flirting with new highs. And no, it’s not Palantir if you’re wondering. 😀 I’ve also got the first in a series of educational articles, “How to spot Pullbacks, Corrections, Dips and Rips” ahead of time. Plus, a new quantum cheat sheet and even a look at how a “dopamine detox” can help you up your game in life and in the markets

I’d love the opportunity to welcome you on board if that’s of interest. If you’ve got this covered and you’re already getting the results you want, fabulous! 💯