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☕️ Intel pops 15%, should you buy it?

Mar 13, 2025

Howdy! 👋

Tech caught a bid yesterday leading the Nasdaq, the S&P 500 and the Russell higher. The Dow did, in fact, finish red – lower – on the day as I thought might be the case in yesterday’s 5.

As tempting as it is to jump on board quickly, don’t.

One day does not a trend make.

Set goals
Have a plan
Execute

Investing is not a game of rushed decisions at moments in time, but it is very much a game about consistency and discipline over time.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Intel pops 15%, should you buy it?

I’ve made no bones about the fact that I think Intel is dead money and has been for quite a long time. Since early spring 2021 when I first made that observation if memory serves.

Shares were trading north of $60 back then; yesterday, they closed at $24.

This morning there’s news that the company has appointed Lip-Bu Tan as its next CEO effective March 18th. (Read) AND, there’s also news that TSMC is gathering a flock of other semi makers to have another run at Intel’s Foundry. (Read)

Should you buy it?

Honestly, that’s a tough call.

Tan is a seasoned exec and former Intel board member, so he knows the joint well – so there is that. And who knows what a TSMC arrangement would look like or at what price that may happen.

Seems like a lot of unknowns at a time when there are NO unknowns about a choice like Palantir… or Apple… or a dozen other names with far brighter prospects imho.

But that’s just me.

Trade Idea: Buying a few deep in the money call options on INTC might be worth a punt, or a lottery ticket considering the odds are about the same in my book. 🤷🏻‍️

2 – Forget gold—your best hedge might be liquid (and aged in oak)

Some people hoard gold. Others hoard cash. But if you're really thinking ahead, maybe you should be hoarding booze—because the right bottle of whiskey or wine might just outshine bullion.

Need proof? - pun absolutely intended. 🤦‍

Just ask collectors who’ve seen rare vintages appreciate faster than the S&P 500. Or take a look at the latest geopolitical wildcard: tariffs.

US President Donald Trump has now threatened a 200% tariff on French wine and other EU alcohol products. (Read) And the EU is apparently planning a retaliatory 50% tariff on American whiskey.

The message for investors like you and me is clear.

Supply chains are fragile things and, like oil, when you mess with 'em, prices will change. Weather changes are torching vineyards, whiskey demand is exploding, and “limited edition” could well be the ultimate flex a few years from now.

Unlike gold, your stash of Château Lafite Rothschild 2010 or Macallan 25 actually gets better with age—and if the economy goes sideways, pairs beautifully with a recession. Or tariffs.

So keep stacking those gold bars if it makes you feel safe but there's a good argument to be made at the moment that sipping a $1,000 bottle of scotch could beat staring at a lump of shiny metal.

One other thought.

My guess is that Costco's booze in bulk will start flying off the shelves and that's going to be great for the stock considering that alcohol is generally a high margin product. I could see the same thing happening at Walmart, too.

À votre santé!

3 - Say it ain’t so, Pauli—Meta’s borrowing from X?!

I’m reasonably good at seeing market developments coming a mile away—but this one?

Total curveball.

Meta is reportedly going to use X’s open-source tech for its Community Notes. (Read)

Yep, the same Meta that axed third-party fact-checking is now going to crowdsource “truth” from verified randos with a phone number.

200,000 people have already signed up. What could possibly go wrong, other than everything?

Zuckerberg isn’t stupid.

He likely sees X positioning itself as the arbiter of truth, riding a wave of public support and fanfare, and he wants in - why build when you can borrow?

Irony of irony, it’ll probably be great for the stock.

Hmmm. 🤔

4 – You’d think dollar general would be the hottest stock on the planet

But noooooo.

Inflation continues to hurt Dollar General’s core customers as their customers are cash strapped.

The company reported (Read):

Customer traffic declined by 1.1% YoY.
Operating profit dropped 49% YoY to $294 million.
Net income fell to $191 million, down from $402 million a year prior.
The company will close 96 Dollar General stores and 45 Popshelf locations, while converting six Popshelf stores into flagship locations.

Dollar General is facing an identity crisis.

I think it’ll struggle to reach $100 a share but that there’s also a very real possibility it heads to $75 or lower within 6 months.

Putskies, short or avoid.

On the other hand, my two fav retailers have skunked it by a large margin over a 3, 5, 10, 20-year timeframe – and both have nearly unlimited upside.

If you’ve got this covered, good on you! If not and you’d like some help, you know where to find me.

5 – Join me live for The Big Skinny

My good friend and colleague, the super sharp Lou Basenese, is starting a new show he’s calling “The Big Skinny” – an American slang expression meaning the true, often hidden, information or gist about something.

We start at 1400EST and I hope you’ll tune in. (Watch)

My segment’ll start about quarter past. 😀