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I can’t recall the last time I saw a trifecta setup

May 05, 2023

Good morning! 👋

And voila... futures are up, and there could be a green day ahead.

I suspect it’s just the computers doing a little mean reversion, but that’s really moot.

The world’s best companies are still putting up great numbers at a time when public pessimism has reached new highs.

Contrarian indicators don’t get any better.

Here’s my playbook.

I hope I own enough

People want to argue with me all the time about why Apple can’t possibly get bigger, how the company can’t possibly grow more, and why the stock is ripe for failure.

CEO Tim Cook didn’t get the memo.

Apple just beat expectations with iPhone sales defying the doom & gloom crowd and a general slump in consumer electronics yet again. (Read)

I hope you’re on board.

The stock has returned 1,094.69% over the past 10 years and has tacked on 27.79% this year alone, according to Eikon. The S&P 500, by comparison, has put up 151.56% and 5.77%, respectively.

No rupees for us, Komrad

India made what many said was a bold move to ditch the dollar when it insisted in bilateral trade in rupees this past March. Many were quick to say it would “dent” the dollar, and Reuters reported as much. (Read)

Not so fast, I said.

My take was different.

India screwed up because the rupee isn’t exactly a bastion of stability. That time may come as India develops, but not yet. Using the yuan... now that would have been a game changer.

Anyway, not to beat a dead horse here, but Russia has just suspended negotiations with India saying it has billions in rupees “that it can’t use.” (Read)

A trifecta trade setup idea... long the USD, long the yuan, short the rupee.

Replacing the dollar isn’t that easy, despite what the legion of doom seems to think.

Make no bones about it, though, China’s charm offensive is in high gear, and they’re doing everything they can to do so. So, we—you and I—do want to prepare for that.

No kidding: US home sales: –21% last MONTH

Seems that homeowners—ta da—don't want to be locked into soaring rates. (Read)

Mr. Chairman...

And on a related note, DHI is up 50.70% over the past year and within 2.4% of all-time highs anyway.

Could make for a juicy counter trend trade, but I suspect the rise has more to do with the availability of credit than home prices.

Hmmm.

Lyft Needs... a Lift

Going out on price is the worst possible business tactic of all.

But that’s what Lyft (LYFT) is doing in an attempt to increase their market share by lowering fares. Not surprisingly, margins took a hit. LYFT shares are down more than –14% in the pre-market as I type. (Read)

But Keith, what about Tesla??!!

That’s different.

Tesla is cutting prices from a position of strength and as part of an overall business strategy that integrates well with other income streams. It’s not “just” about market share like Lyft’s move.

Proves yet again why smart investors want to take a page from the One Bar Ahead® playbook.

Invest in the best and forget the rest!

There’s still time: 2 new recommendations later today

The team and I will be publishing the May issue of One Bar Ahead® a few hours from now.

In it, you’ll find what I think may just be two perfectly timed recommendations and my latest research. One is decidedly growth-oriented while the other is sure to be a favourite for anyone in search of rock-solid income.

There’s also a surprising look at how you can line up your portfolio for perpetual cash flow and why you’ll want to as part of that. Many investors think they’re at the market’s mercy, but that’s not the case if you’ll willing to do a little planning.

If you’ve got this covered, cool beans. If not and you’d like a little help getting on track and an anxiety-reducing approach to investing, I’d love to earn your trust, goodwill, and business. Upgrade to paid