☕️ I can’t imagine not owning Costco

Howdy! 👋 

I suggested that everyone take a day yesterday, and you did! 

My bride and I along with our entire team enjoyed countless stories about the walks, hikes, gardening, deck repair, boating, dog fetching and more – how cool is that – thank YOU for sharing! 

Speaking of which, Michael G. couldn’t have said it better noting, “this tariff stuff isn't going to last forever. It's the permanent disruptions that are scary, like owning a typewriter factory in 1982.”  

I couldn’t have said it better myself! 

Now, pass the White-Out (or Tipp-Ex if you’re from across the Pond)! 🤣 

Meanwhile, let’s get back to the races. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Treasury yields down, markets down (for now) 

No surprise. 

Bad used to be good because everybody thought that would bring the Fed off the sidelines with a cut. Now, the worse-than-expected jobs data is being taken for what it really is… short-term economic weakness.  

Treasury yields are falling which reflects a classic “flight to short-term safety” trade underway – meaning the big money traders are selling stocks and buying Treasuries. 

Why they call it that anymore is beyond me… it’s anything but safe.  

More like “short-term, fleece the investing public noise that makes for great headlines and countless clickbait stories” but that’s kinda a mouthful. 🤦‍♂️ 

Should you run for the hills, too? 

No doubt it’s tempting; I feel the angst too. 

But I won’t pull any punches… the bigger and more profitable game for individual investors is to stay on the hunt if you can, particularly where you can find deep value right now. 

Like, oh, I dunno… big tech and AI stocks that are beaten down considerably more than the Nazzy itself. 

Just sayin’. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Keep what’s happening in perspective. Sure, it feels bad, nasty and even scary… but it is NOT unusual. In fact, the Nasdaq has fallen 15% or more from a peak at least 5 times since 1990. We’re down about 10% or so now, which is hardly unusual and well within statistical norms. Ergo, continue to focus on what happens next - meaning the “roar back” to new highs. 

2 – I can’t imagine not owning Costco 

As noted during a conversation yesterday with the super sharp Nicole Petallides and Investopedia’s Caleb Silver, Costco did indeed produce strong results. (Watch) 

And as I expected would be the case, the real highlight was e-commerce comparable sales growing at 20.9% in the quarter. Substantially higher than the 13% many analysts “expected.” (Read) 

I can’t imagine not owning it. 

High margin, higher than ever membership, high and accelerating return to scale. 

If you’re an OBAer, chances are good you’re grinning like a Cheshire cat and if not, that’s highly encouraged. Costco has returned 137.75% since I brought it to your attention versus vs a plenty respectable but still less 34.49% from the S&P 500 over the same time frame. 

That’s enough to turn every $1,000 invested into $2,377.50 versus $1,344.90 if you’d purchased the SPY, a popular ETF tracking the S&P 500. 

I hope I'm smart enough to buy more.  

3 – Boeing: I'm amazed it's not sub $100

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg says the company needs to change its culture... (Read) 

Ya think?!?!?  

Sigh 🤦 

I’m amazed Boeing isn’t sub $100 a share at this point. 

I’d love to bet on a comeback but all the scuttlebutt I hear is that’d be foolish.  

We live in the PNW which is Boeing country so we get an earful from every angle as you can imagine. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Numbers don’t tell the whole story which is why you want to take what you hear – quite literally – into account if you’re thinking about buying a stock, particularly if the word turnaround is in the same sentence. 

4 – Broadcom’s AI boom 

Broadcom announced Q1 earnings, handily beating both top and bottom-line estimates. (Read) 

My attention is focused on the 77% YoY increase in AI-related revenue. 

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, AI will go down as the biggest investing theme in recorded human history. 

Every business on the planet will adapt, adopt or die.  

And the same is true for investors. 

I prefer a few other players but am happy has all get out for those who do own Broadcom shares – well done! 💯 

5 – It’s issue Friday – hooyah! 

Today is “issue Friday” which means a) I am super excited to share my latest research with the OBA Family and b) that the March edition of One Bar Ahead®, will be published later today – so keep an eye on your email! 

This month we’re taking a hard look at what every investor should know about tariffs as well as how to “tariff-proof” your portfolio. I’m also introducing a new indicator I call the “Two” which is designed to help investors spot high probability dips and rips ahead of time. 

There’s also the latest portfolio review and a whole lot more; I am struck by how much opportunity the recent selloff has created! 

If you’re good with what you’re doing and getting the results you want, GREAT! On the other hand, if this is something that’s of interest, I’d love the opportunity to welcome you to the OBA Family! I’ll be here if you need me. 

Bottom Line 

One of the great challenges when it comes to investing is to know enough about a subject to think you’re right, but not enough to know you’re wrong. 

Then, either way, invest accordingly. 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

You got this – I promise!  

Keith 😀