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☕ How ‘bout them Apples?

Jun 12, 2024

Good morning! 👋

The markets are off to the races as traders try to second guess Team Powell yet again on the heels of what’s being described as a “cool” inflation report.

Excellent!

Many of the stocks we talk about frequently are leading the way as expected (which is, of course, why I advocate owning ‘em).

I’m lovin’ the action and trust you are, too. 💯

Invest in the best, ignore the rest!

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Everything we’re going to learn from Fed today

...

Keith’s Investing Tip: The Fed has already caused the next 3 financial crises so it makes no sense to keep fawning over what Powell and his bunch might or might not do when it comes to rates because you can’t control that. Instead, focus on what you can control... like buying great companies making "must have" products and services and using simple powerful tactics to control risk while boosting profit potential. Your portfolio will thank you!

I’ll be here if you need me.

2 – How ‘bout them Apples?

I couldn’t help but grin ear to ear yesterday as I watched Apple do its thing.

I put $200 a share on the map back when the stock was trading in the low $120s and said that Apple would continue to set the pace. Then, I reiterated that view late last year noting to Maria Bartiromo that I think it’ll be the first company to hit $4T and that we’ll see $275 perhaps even $300 a share by the end of this year. (Watch)

Loads of folks disagreed for a variety of reasons... falling China sales, iPhones were passe, falling behind on AI, lack of innovation, market narrowness etc.

One critic was particularly nasty calling me out on Twitter saying that my “advice was so 1999” while another called me a “clown.” Not surprisingly, both of ‘em hid behind anonymous internet handles and both have since vanished into the ether.

Either way, that’s okay – it comes with the territory.

I hope they bought Apple stock anyway

Just like I hope you did.

There's still a long way to go.

Today’s price action proves yet again why Apple’s still a player, perhaps even the player to contend with when it comes to AI.

Btw, if your financial adviser resisted or told you not to buy Apple/Nvidia as they marched higher – a far more common tale than you’d think - I submit you need to rethink that relationship. And while I will not manage your money, I can certainly introduce you to people familiar with my research who can. And no, I do not accept fees for doing that.

3 – Oracle’s AI hat trick

Oracle’s quarterly results fell short, but the company announced AI cloud deals that have apparently caught the public's imagination. (Read)

Shares were up sharply in the pre-market and still trading higher.

Something's off.

Share volume increased substantially ahead of the company’s quarterly results, which suggests two things: a) accumulation by institutional investors but, also b) the possibility that somebody knew something they shouldn’t have ahead of time.

The speculative put trade I suggested yesterday looks to be a bust, doggonit.

Stuff happens.

Back to the drawing board!

Keith’s Trading Tip: Many aspiring traders think about trading in terms of how much money they can make but seasoned professionals worry about what’s going to cause ‘em to lose money and can they avoid it in the name of profits. That's why the former often go for broke and wind up that way while the latter keep risks small and it doesn’t bother ‘em to lose every now and again.

Something to think about.

4 – Normally I don’t care what the IEA thinks

The International Energy Agency – a.k.a. the IEA – says oil demand is on track to slow down before reaching a peak of 106 million barrels per day by 2030. (Read)

So?

That means – at least according to their math – that global production capacity will be roughly 8 million barrels per day above projected demand.

The implication is that this’ll jam oil companies.

I’m not so sure.

I recall a spirited discussion years ago with the Director of OPEC’s research department at the time following presentations we’d both given in Vienna about a similar outlook then making the rounds.

Demand, I said, would continue to accelerate as huge swathes of oil production capacity go offline because of antiquated equipment, war, and civil unrest. Prices would stay higher I maintained. Ergo, investing in oil companies was critical.

That's still true.

Global demand by 2030 is still going to be 3-4 million barrels a day higher than it is now. Unrest continues as does conflict. War, unfortunately and sadly, seems to be a growth industry.

I’m sticking with my energy stocks, especially those with excellent true shareholder yield (rather than the listed yield everybody commonly focuses on).

If you have no idea what I’m talking about but would like to learn why companies with higher than average true shareholder yield can dramatically boost your dividend investing results over time, let me toss my hat in the ring. You may enjoy One Bar Ahead®. (Learn More)

5 – Charles Schwab biffs it

Like many folks yesterday, I was unable to access my Charles Schwab accounts because there was a technical glitch that prevented me from doing so.

There has been no explanation, and no client communication so let me just say diplomatically that I think their attitude toward what happened pretty much sucks.

The company bills itself as a modern investing solution.

Uh-huh. 🤦‍♂️

Unfortunately, situations like this are going to be more common whether we like it or not as our world increasingly digitizes and bigger players like Charles Schwab continue to gobble up smaller companies like TD Ameritrade and Thinkorswim which, I might add, I used flawlessly for over a decade before Chuckles came to town.

Hear that Schwab??!! ... flawlessly!

MyPOV: The moral of the story is to pick your relationships carefully. I’m going to be looking at other options shortly. You?