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☕️ Have the bears been shaken off?

Mar 24, 2025

Howdy! 👋

It’s the same old story.

Markets sell off for whatever reason…
Media stacks up doom & gloom stories…
Load of investors sell out because they let their emotions get the better of ‘em…
Wall Street rallies and they get left behind yet again…

History shows very clearly that being invested in markets that may not be perfect beats waiting to invest in perfect markets.

There is undoubtedly more volatility ahead and, just as undoubtedly, it’ll be an opportunity!

Here’s my playbook.

1 – The single most important lesson any investor can learn

Many investors get scared to the sidelines at the worst possible moment.

Case in point, many who were worried about further declines last night are wondering whether they’ve missed the boat this morning with all three indices on the run higher.

Here’s my take from last night’s short along with one of the single most powerful investing lessons of all – and one, I might add, that I, too, had to learn the hard way years ago. (Watch)

2 – Have the bears been shaken off track?

That’s the question on the minds of millions of investors this morning – and here’s my take as to why that just might be the case with the super-smart Stuart Varney. Along, of course, with a few thoughts on Apple and Tesla… both of which I believe are poised for another big run. (Watch)

3 – China’s charm offensive is in high gear

Scores of big-name foreign CEOs are in Beijing for the China Development Forum including Tim Cook of Apple, Cristiano Amon of Qualcomm, Pascal Soriot of AstraZeneca according to CNBC. (Read)

Make no bones about it.

The Western Press is totally missing the real point here.

This isn’t just about trade. Or economics. Or warming relations.

Beijing wants to shape the world in its own image. And rolling out the red carpet for the world’s most powerful CEOs is no accident. It’s classic Chinese statecraft — a long game built on optics, influence, and invitation. And it goes back centuries.

Sun Tzu, the legendary Chinese general and strategist, once said: “Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.”

That’s exactly what you’re seeing now.

China doesn’t need to go toe-to-toe with the West militarily or even financially — not when it can win with access, flattery, and face time.

Getting the world’s most recognizable business leaders to show up — let alone smile for pictures and praise China’s potential — sends a far louder message than a thousand speeches from the CCP ever could.

The unspoken headline here and the one that matters to you and me as investors?

“We’re open for business — on our terms.”

China is acutely aware that tariffs are going to cripple scores of hi-priority business development activities and, not surprisingly eager to attract foreign investment again. Both to acquire “face” but also hard currency and intellectual property from its “partners.”

But not because Beijing gives a rip about rejoining the global order — it wants to reshape it.

Apple wants to maintain its foothold in China. Qualcomm needs China’s vast semiconductor market. AstraZeneca? One of the biggest players in biopharma and a key supplier of medicines in China.

China knows exactly what these companies want. And in exchange, it gets something far more valuable: Legitimacy. Leverage. And time.

Don’t fall for the optics.

This isn’t a summit — it’s a strategic stage.

And the world’s biggest brands? They’re playing their part in a carefully choreographed dance — one that may look like cooperation but smells a whole lot like something else if you're paying attention.

MyPOV: The dragon is coming to dinner; the only decision you’ve got to make is whether you and your money are at the table or on the menu.

4 – Next gen plastics = next gen everything, not just airplanes

Airbus and Boeing are both reportedly considering plans to produce 100 jets a month using thermoplastics if they can get a handle on production intricacies. (Read)

The bigger issue will be FAA and other global regulatory approvals but, hey, let’s not put the engine before the wing or the cart before the horse as the case may be. Think next-gen jets that are cheaper, lighter, and more fuel-efficient. Think defense systems that move faster and cost less. Think EVs that weigh less and drive farther. Think robotics that are quickly, easily and more profitably assembled and used.

This is going to be a game-changer when it happens, not if.

Stay tuned – we will definitely be revisiting this concept as digitalization and AI (which are a huge part of materials science) accelerates.

Keith’s Investing Tip: The real opportunity for investors will be behind the headlines in situations like this. Materials innovators. Advanced composite manufacturers. IP-rich small caps with breakthrough tech. Even large-caps hiding exposure in their R&D pipelines or strategic partnerships. Watch this space!

5 – Another sign the bottom may be in and that I haven’t had enough coffee 🤦‍

There’s an old saying on Wall Street: “Flows follow price.”

Translation?

Investors are great at making the right decisions… at exactly the wrong moment.

So, it comes as no surprise — none, zero, zilch — that CNBC is reporting a flood of attention at the ETF conference in Vegas is focused on… wait for it… ultra-short Treasuries and fixed income. (Read)

Because, of course, nothing says “bold investing” like locking in 5% while inflation’s chewing your lunch, equities are gearing up for a run and passive investing means you’ve become the market you fear.

It’s the financial equivalent of showing up to the beach with an umbrella after the thunderstorm’s passed.

Let me be clear: I’m not mocking the strategy nor the thinking — safety has its place.

But when Wall Street piles into ultra-conservative plays after the market's already been battered, bruised, and body-slammed? That’s not prudence — that’s performance FOMO in reverse and a lot like selling sunscreen in December.

Historically, when investors cram into the safest stuff on the menu — Treasuries, cash, gold bars under the mattress — it’s usually a contrarian flare screaming from the market’s dashboard “Hey! The bottom’s probably already in!”

And this move into fixed income? It’s giving me serious 2009, 2020, late-2022 vibes.

I’d be hard-pressed to find a better signal — other than maybe the AAII Sentiment Survey, which we covered recently — that tells us investors are once again doing what they do best - buying fear, selling opportunity, and calling it wisdom.

Don’t be that person.

You know the one — still waiting for Dow 10,000 while Nvidia eats the world, and the S&P prints new highs and a new generation of millionaires gets created.

Keith’s Investing Tip: When everyone’s rushing into safety, the real money is already tiptoeing back into growth.

Speaking of which, if you’re an OBAer, I’ve got a few thoughts along these lines later today in this week’s update. And if you’re not - but getting ahead of the next big wave of profitability is something that sounds interesting - I’d like to toss my hat in the ring.