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☕️ Dividend investors face a new risk

Apr 17, 2025

Howdy! 👋

The markets began the day split – meaning the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are green while the Dow is red – but have now all turned to the downside.

Not a surprise given Powell’s commentary and the ongoing tariff tantrums.

Not a bad thing either, though.

My experience – and history – suggests that a little tug of war is exactly what the markets need to shake out the weak hands and the scared money. Which, of course, paves the way for another run higher eventually.

Patience and discipline are the two most undervalued assets in the market today.

Just sayin’

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Nvidia – buy the dips?

That’s what the super savvy Richard Dean in Dubai wanted to know when we sat down for his show, The Business Breakfast. Plus, my thoughts on Apple, Google and Pfizer. (Watch)

2 – Unka Powell strikes again...

We’ve been over this so many times I’ve lost count.

Powell got transitory wrong, failed to recognize inflation as it blossomed, held rates too high too long and now… we’re supposed to fawn over every last word out of his mouth??!! 🤦‍

Once again JPow proved to be in firm command of the obvious when he noted during remarks at the Economic Club of Chicago and admitted what many have been thinking… that the Fed may find itself “in the challenging scenario in which [the Fed’s] dual-mandate goals are in tension.” (Watch)

Markets tanked almost instantly and are still reeling today.

Would somebody please take away the mic!

People will inevitably try to make what’s happening political but last time I checked incompetence isn’t a party thing.

Money doesn’t do politics but politics sure as heck thinks it does money.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Focus what you can control… like buying great companies, controlling risk and building your wealth. History is very clear that investors who wade into the fight (intelligently) come out far wealthier when the storm passes than those who don’t.

3 – Dividend investors beware if you’re counting on insurance companies

UnitedHealth Group just slashed its 2025 profit forecast, citing runaway medical costs—specifically from a surge in Medicare Advantage demand. (Read)

I was born in the middle of the night, just not last night.

UnitedHealth is being investigated for fraudulent medical billing practices which, oh, I dunno, could have something to do with a revised forest. But I digress.

That news alone shaved 20.77% off the stock as I type.

Translation?

This isn’t just a miss.

It’s a ginormous warning flare.

Dividend investors who count on insurance companies for a variety of reasons are particularly at risk. I doubt very seriously that UnitedHealth is alone on this one (the billing practices and rising costs).

I think the so-called “safe haven” health insurers are proving to be anything but.

Meanwhile, I’m still sitting well outside the health insurance space.

Putskies?

That’s a different story… the risk/reward math just got very interesting. 🤔

4 – Palantir just made defense spending an annuity

Genius move!

The company has teamed up with SpaceX and Anduril, to pitch the US “Golden Dome” missile shield: (Read)

400 to 1,000+ satellites to spot missiles.

Another 200 birds armed to take 'em out.

Business model twist: not ownership—subscription. Uncle Sam rents access... and the bill never stops coming.

What I like about that approach is twofold: a) faster deployment when the nation needs it and b) avoiding endless cost overruns and a loss of control that typically plagues projects like this.

If it flies – pun absolutely intended - it’ll shove Lockheed and Northrop into the cheap seats.

Watch this space – boy, I can’t stop with the puns today. 🤷🏻‍️

Literally.

MyPOV: A lot of Wall Street missed Palantir and you can bet they’re not keen to see that happen again. The stock seems to be basing just under $100 which, if I’m correct, means it’s building strength for another run higher.

5 – A perfect example of buy the best, ignore the rest

Costco is doing what great companies do:

Delivering results, not headlines.

A 12% dividend hike. (Read)

20 consecutive years of increases.

Special payouts when it matters most.

I’ve made no bones about it — Costco is a prime example of my investment philosophy, summed up in just six words: Buy the best, ignore the rest.

With high margins, record-breaking membership growth, and an accelerating return to scale, Costco isn’t just holding steady —It’s building unstoppable momentum, stability and consistency… all of which results in a smoother ride for savvy investors.

Heck knows I’ve been beating the drum about this for long enough.

I hope that you’re on board and, if not, plan to do something about that.

Shares have returned 3,085.96% over the past 20 years, compared to a respectable 570.37% from the SPY (a popular S&P 500 ETF) and just 198.14% from Target (TGT).

Put another way, a $1,000 investment in Costco (COST) 20 years ago would now be worth approximately $31,859.60. That same $1,000 in the SPY would be worth about $6,703.70. And in Target (TGT), it would be worth around $2,981.40

Keith’s Investing Tip: You can invest like everyone else and settle for table scraps. Or you can make a change and join the winners.

If you’re already there, keep going.

If not and you’d like to be, I’ll be here — and honored to help you make that journey along with other super smart investors around the world who are already part of the One Bar Ahead® Family!