☕ CrowdStrike might be a billion-dollar quarter

Good morning! 👋

The markets are split in early going, which is about par for holiday-week trading. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – CrowdStrike: might be a $1B+ quarter 

Super simple thinking here. 

Retail investors were quick to penalize CrowdStrike this past summer and the stock sold off 44.4% from 1st July to 2nd August 2024 on the heels of a premature version release. 

I told you that was a) a mistake and b) that the dip would very likely prove to be a buying opportunity. 

Seems I was on to something. 

Shares are +67% off lows as we head into earnings this evening.

Watch the customer numbers carefully. I expect ‘em to show that they’re not stepping away but, in fact, continue to deepen their relationship in many cases. (Read)

Might even be a billion-$ quarter. 

The Big Picture: Cybercrime isn’t going away. In fact, it’s getting worse by the minute. Various data suggest that it could be a $24T problem by 2027 with attacks rising 30% a year and accelerating. Investing accordingly now makes all kinds of cents, err, sense. 

2 – Palantir: think differently or else 

“It's important that people start thinking of Palantir as the next Oracle, Cisco, or SAP!” 

3 – Amgen’s weight loss data not good enough 

Amgen’s experimental weight-loss drug, MariTide, helped patients lose up to 20% of their weight in a mid-stage trial, with no plateau observed, indicating potential for further weight loss beyond 52 weeks. (Read) 

Shares fell anyway in the pre-market because investors were expecting “more” about weighing less. 

Is it a buy? 

Not for me. 

Nearly 75% of Americans are obese according to a new study and I’d rather invest in sustainable health instead of quick fixes. Eating better, exercise and making that happen is far more profitable long-term. So are the informatics that’ll make that possible. 

We’re already tracking the top 2 players in OBA as part of the march toward customizable medicine. If you’d like to learn more and up your game at the same time, I’d welcome the opportunity.  

4 – Sorry, resurging consumers won’t save retail stocks 

Macy’s was set to report Q3 earnings today but suddenly delayed until December 11th due to an “accounting issue” involving a single employee who reportedly hid up to $154M worth of delivery expenses. (Read) 

I can’t imagine this’ll go over well when the actual numbers come to light. 

The “error” apparently covers 3 years which means that restating earnings could be the least of it. 

Short, avoid or putskies. 

Meanwhile… 

CNBC and other websites are filled with news about holiday sales with names like Abercrombie seeing strong holiday spending (Read) and Dick’s expecting “robust” guidance. (Read) 

Again, I’ll pass. 

Many investors doggedly continue to hang onto retail stocks for reasons that defy the imagination. Certainly, the wallet. Malls… dying. Online… vibrant but not the show it once was. Mom and Pop… making a comeback but not enough scale for mainstream investors imho. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Retail stores sell something once and hope to make a profit. Tech can sell one thing billions of times. Guess which one has the higher return on scale, not to mention considerably larger, life-changing profit potential??!! 🤷‍♂️ 

5 – Race on Sunday, sell on Monday 

Cadillac and GM want to field an F1 Team. (Read) 

On the surface, this appears to be pure lunacy.  

F1 is one of the most expensive sports on the planet. Fielding a team takes a deep, deep wallet somewhere in the neighborhood of $135M a year (which is actually limited by the FIA, theoretically to make the field more competitive). 🤦‍ 

Even so, I think it could be a smart move. 

Doing anything on the edge tends to produce breakthrough thinking.  

Water filtration, memory foam, solar panels and scratch resistant lenses all came out of NASA’s space program. 

F1 has produced side-mounted radiators, kinetic energy recovery systems, telemetry and more. 

IF – and this is a big “if” Cadillac and GM are serious – their entry could help re-establish both names in the minds of consumers not to mention result in some new tech that just may boost sales. 

Race on Sunday, sell on Monday! 

Bottom Line 

You will spend 1/3rd of your life chasing $$, perhaps more … 8-10 hours a day, 365 days a year. 

Why on earth wouldn't you spend 10 minutes a day learning how to make more and keep it? 

Invest, trade, practice ... better yet, do all three every day! 

As always, let’s finish the week strong – you got this! 

I promise. 

Keith 😃