☕ Buy or Bail?

Good morning! 👋 

Buy or bail? 

That’s the question many folks are asking themselves. 

The answer depends on your perspective. 

History shows very clearly that you want to stay in the game and on the hunt if you can. 

That’s what I’m doing. 

Quite a few of the stocks I own and recommend to the One Bar Ahead® Family were green yesterday and are green again today as I type. Others have held up all week. 

And those that haven’t? 

I’m not particularly worried, even if there’s more selling to come. 

Every one of ‘em is a world class player or has a unique catalyst that could turn ‘em into one. Still more have significantly higher true shareholder yields and lower betas which tends to translate into vastly higher profit potential and a smoother ride over time. 

Hopefully, you’re having the same experience.  

And, if you’re not, do something about it.  

Don’t get me wrong, what’s happening is unsettling. But it’s not the end of the world literally or figuratively. 

The markets continually swing between fear and greed. 

That’s how they work. 

Chaos creates opportunity and, dare I say given how much of the former there is right now, there’s a lot of the latter! 

The key to building wealth in tough markets is to recognize two things: 

1. The business case for owning the world’s best companies isn’t impacted by short-term market shenanigans; and, 
2. Using the right tactics can help you control risk when you need it most. 

Take Apple, for example. 

The headline bandits and clickbait artists were quick to say that the company warned, missed, or failed to live up to expectations. 

I’m not sure they were looking at the same earnings report, an observation I noted during an interview with the fabulous team at CNA Singapore last night. (Watch) 

Think about it... Apple has billions of devices installed, billions of paying subscribers, global uptake is increasing, a tremendous number of new users are buying which means the markets are not saturated by a long shot. 

As for AI, critics charge that the company isn’t spending enough but in doing so demonstrate their ignorance. Apple uses a partnership model which means that Apple’s partners are doing most of the spending and that’s reflected on their P&L and their balance sheets. Not Apple’s. 

If half of these supposed experts would do real analysis, the Internet would be a very different place. Certainly filled with a lot less hooey, but that’s another topic for another time. 

To be fair, I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to sell everything and run for the hills. 

Just understand something if you do. 

Missing opportunity is almost always more expensive than trying to avoid risks you can’t control. 

Bottom Line 

My grandfather had a way with words and I can hear one of his favorite bits of advice ringing in my ears this morning... 

“You often make your money when the ___ hits the fan. It’s just not apparent until everyone else thinks the blades have stopped spinning.” 

You got this – I promise! 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day and a strong finish to the week. 

Keith 😊 

PS: OBAers... keep an eye on your email. The August issue will be out a few hours from now, and, with it, a new recommendation based on research intended to help you tame the market’s wild side. I’ve also got two simple RSI strategies for anyone interested in learning how to trade around core investments. Conditions could be perfect for both. Hooyah!