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☕ Boeing is a bug in search of a windshield

Sep 03, 2024

Good morning! 👋

Aaaaaannnnnnd, we’re off.

I trust that you had a great Labor Day Weekend if you are here in the US and a wonderful weekend if you’re somewhere else on the planet.

Holiday shortened weeks are usually a bit squirrely, so be prepared for that.

Traders, like the rest of us, have families and many take the week off as they get ready to go back to school with their kids or otherwise just to prepare for the run into Fall.

September is widely acknowledged as one of the most volatile months but for reasons I mentioned to Neil Cavuto last Friday, I’m not sure it will be this year. (Watch)

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Markets down hard as I type

This isn’t unusual for the reasons I’ve just mentioned.

Some traders are still on holiday while others are busy making moves... so volatility typically jumps this month.

1-2% is noise

3-5% would be normal

7-10% uncomfortable but not unusual

Keith’s Investing Tip: Fall is often a great time to buy if you have a bigger playbook and a more profitable perspective in mind. Particularly if you’re buying the best but ignoring the rest – something you hear me say frequently.

Tactics – something most people don’t think about but should - are how you control risk.

I’ll be talking more about both in today’s OBA Update a few hours from now so keep an eye on your email. Or, click here if you’d like to join the family of savvy investors who are already on board around the world.

2 – Boeing is a bug in search of a windshield

I’ve been telling you for quite some time now that Boeing is a bug in search of a windshield.

Now, it’s closing in on the $150 target I set for shares this past March. See #4.

I want to cheer for newly seated CEO Kelly Ortberg but the scuttlebutt around here (Boeing’s backyard) is just terrible. He’s got an astounding uphill battle ahead.

Continue to short or avoid – there are bigger, better, and considerably more well-run players with actual profit potential.

3 – Telegram's troubles might make Zuck pounce

Telegram’s problems in France are just the tip of the iceberg if reports from South Korea, Brazil and Germany are correct – the app has been at the center of several investigations related to criminal activity, deepfake porn, terrorism, and other nastiness.

I maintain that there's a very good case to be made that it’s also at the core of Russian intel operations, too (which is why Putin has taken an interest) – but that’s just me.

I’ve got to believe El Zucko is watching carefully.

Telegram has long been viewed as the anti-Meta messenging platform because it offers anonymity, an ad-free experience and, of course, self-destructible messages that are encrypted end to end. Up to 200,000 members can be in a single chat and users are not restricted to any kind of media.

If Telegram collapses, my guess is Zuckerberg – who an extremely savvy and predatory executive – will bust a move. I could make an argument without too much trouble that META pops even though it’s trading near all-time highs.

A few call options or a bullish put spread might be intriguing.

Hmmm. 🤔

4 – Airbnb investors beware

New Zealand has joined the ranks of Greece, Italy, Bali, and other locations around the world in charging fees to tourists (who government apparatchiks insist they really do want).

Fees will triple. (Read)

Proponents insist that the money will be used to make the areas more tourist friendly, deal with waste, added infrastructure impact etc.

Critics say that they’re just wallet burners.

I’m in the latter camp.

Tourist fees strike me as kinda like those pesky “resort fees” that I used to get hit with every time I visited Las Vegas but which quietly seem to be going away or at least discretely hidden in higher prices for anything “on property.”

MyPOV: New fees avoid the real issues politicians don’t want to touch... like why they allow so many cruise ships down the Grand Canal and risk destroying Venice with the wakes they create. Or limiting the number of tables for open air restaurants in Paris, Dubrovnik, or Rome. Or why the proper sewage treatment facilities don’t exist in the first place in Bali. They’re a thinly disguised version of airline fees which border on the absurd considering that you are paying more to get less in return.

So-called “mob tourism” isn’t going to be a thing much longer. (Read)

Investing Implication: Watch for a new “deconsolidation.” The first airlines and hotels to do so could win over a new generation of loyal customers at a time when the entire industry is under pressure (and, I submit) a terrible investment.

Putskies.... Airbnb to $100 or less, meanwhile.

5 – Disney blocks sports fans

The House of Mouse has blocked ESPN, ABC, and other channels for DirectTV subscribers. (Read)

DirectTV says Disney is being prevented from providing more flexible packages to the 11 million viewers impacted and that Disney has decided to maximize control in the name of profits.

Disney says it has the right to protect its brand and charge a premium.

A la carte pricing (and higher prices) are not too far away, me thinks.

Starlink or Apple could be a game changer here, but I am not sure either is interested.