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☕️ A simple Tesla decision tree ahead of earnings

Apr 22, 2025

Howdy! 👋

The rebound is underway as I type.

And no — it’s not because markets have magically improved, or tariffs have vanished into thin air.

It’s because the computers hit levels yesterday where buy programs — designed to revert to the mean — kicked in hard this morning to level things up.

Always remember, price drives narrative, not the other way around. So don’t get sucked into the headlines like everybody else; they’re temporary.

Profits, on the other hand, are a permanent feature which is why you want to focus on the companies producing ‘em doggonit!

Here’s my playbook.

1 - Let's talk Tesla

Tesla reports later today and many squeamish investors are driving themselves crazy trying to guess what Unka Elon’s got up his sleeve. (Read)

This doesn’t have to be difficult.

In fact, it’s a simple 3-part decision tree ahead of earnings. (Watch)

Keith’s Investing Tip: Simplicity beats sophistication, especially when it comes to stocks like Tesla. Most investors and traders get smoked overthinking things. So don’t – it’s just that simple!

Trade Idea: I suggested two speculative trading scenarios for the One Bar Ahead® Family in yesterday’s update. And, looking at the action this morning, a short-term straddle could work nicely, too.

2 – Breaking up Google now would be incredibly stupid

The DOJ wants to break up Google’s Chrome and Android units as part of its search monopoly verdict. (Read)

I’m no fan – of Google/Alphabet – but this would be incredibly stupid in the face of aggressive Chinese tech development.

Straight from Karp’s play book – and I agree.

Must-Read: If you haven’t read Dr. Karp’s book, The Technological Republic, and you consider yourself a serious investor, I encourage you to do that immediately. It will change your thinking and, I submit for the better and – dare I say it – far more profitable.

3 – It’s not often I agree with Jim

CNBC’s Jim Cramer says the current market downturn is eerily similar to 2011 — not based on earnings, but on man-made pressures. (Read)

Nice to have company, Jim – thanks for reinforcing my point!

Back then, it was the Eurozone debt crisis. Now, it's domestic instability, debt ceiling fears, and political theatrics.

It’s not often I agree with Cramer.

But in this case, I do.

Keith’s Investing Tip: When the headlines scream panic, lean into discipline, not drama.

4 – Drugs made in America – it’s happening!

Swiss pharma giant Roche is pouring $50 billion into U.S. operations over the next five years—building out AI-driven R&D hubs, a 900,000 sq. ft. manufacturing site, and creating 12,000+ jobs. (Read)

Why now?

Because US President Donald Trump has pharma tariffs on deck so multinationals like Roche are scrambling to de-risk their supply chains.

Roche says the investment will eventually flip its U.S. drug exports higher than imports.

Makes sense.

Contrary to what many people want to believe, the next wave of global pharma growth may be made in America—under pressure, but with purpose.

Remember, money is like water in that it will flow to where it’s treated best.

This isn’t just about tariffs or headlines — it’s about positioning for the future.

Like us, Roche knows that AI is reshaping drug discovery. Personalized medicine is scaling. And reshoring/onshoring will be an extremely profitable move.

Next-gen pharma will be faster, smarter, and closer to home.

MyPOV: Most investors still don’t grasp just how game-changing this really is. At the risk of sounding self-serving, this is exactly the kind of investing theme we track closely in One Bar Ahead®. Hopefully it’s already on your radar and you’re investing according— but if it’s not, you know where to find me.

5 – Walmart v Target

Walmart, Target, and Home Depot executives were recently called to weigh in on sweeping new tariff proposals — and not all retailers are built the same. (Read)

Walmart may just come out of this stronger.

The best companies often do.

2/3rds of what it sells is sourced domestically which means fewer supply chain disruptions, better pricing control, and more insulation from any tariff-driven inflationary shocks.

Target, on the other hand? With much deeper exposure to overseas manufacturing, it's staring down a steeper slope and a very slippery one at that.

I’ve highlighted Walmart as the better choice for years with good reason.

Operational resilience, supply chain strength, and margin protection aren’t just buzzwords — they’re real, investable advantages.

Since I first brought it to OBA members’ attention, Walmart has returned +50.62%, while Target is down –33.78%.

Just sayin’ 🤷🏻‍

Keith’s Investing Tip: People think investing is nothing more than picking a hot stock but that’s not true. You’ve got to constantly weigh alternatives and have a very short “buy” list. Anything else is risk you don’t want in your portfolio, or at least, I don’t.