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โ˜• 5 questions and answers from the eMailbag

Sep 06, 2024

 

Howdy! ๐Ÿ‘‹ 

And snap, just like that. 
 
We’re about to send another week into the record books. 
 
CNBC has made sure I know that what’s happening is the “worst week since April.” April, as in a few months ago... April
My guess is that they will be out with something about “the year” by the time you read this. ๐Ÿคฆ‍โ™‚๏ธ 
 
Today's selling stinks, no doubt about it.
 
This is a highly technical selloff being amplified by computerization, deleveraging and passive investments. Adding insult to injury, traders are walking away from the bid which helps drive prices lower, faster.
 
Take a deep breath and remember why we do what we do.
 
Not investing is worse than being invested in markets that stink.
 
I'm breaking out my "buy list" list today and, just for the record, hating every moment of it while I grin ear to ear.
 
Stock market selloffs do NOT interfere with the business case for the companies I own. So I don't spend a lot of time worrying about 'em and encourage you not to either.
 
Meanwhile, I thought you might enjoy my take on 5 of the most commonly asked questions I receive whenever the markets get in a foul mood and angst begins to creep in around the edges. 
 

1 – Why isn’t the market ...up ...down ...how low can it go? 

People constantly try to predict the unpredictable because they want to be right. The world’s most successful investors focus on being profitable even if they’re wrong. 

Let that sink in. 

The bears have been trying desperately to front run – meaning get ahead of – a recession that hasn’t materialized. So they’ve pulled out all the stops with dire predictions, alarming reports and a doubt driven narrative. 

Now they’ve created a self-fulfilling prophecy by selling hard, particularly when it comes to stocks like Nvidia.

But here’s the thing. 

Professional traders could care less that it’s Nvidia... YOU and your money are the real target. 

It’s not personal, it’s their job. 

Don’t fall for it. 

There have been 66 rolling 20-year periods since 1928, 100% of which have resulted in positive returns. So it makes sense to play to that. 

If your reaction is “yeah, but...” that’s on you, my friend. 

One of three – or all three - things is happening:  

  1. You think you’re investing but your jumpiness suggests you’re speculating 
  2. You lack a rock-solid, long-term strategy to get past short-term chaos confidently and profitably 
  3. Your emotions are getting the better of you. 

 All are fixable. 

 

2 – Do you ever talk about selling? 

Yes, constantly. 

In One Bar Ahead® our paid research. 

I give away 99% of what I know about money for free but sharing that information here and the tactics needed to do it successfully wouldn’t be fair to the thousands of folks who tell me they consider joining the OBA Family to be one of the best decisions they’ve ever made. 

If you don’t know how to sell, learn. 

If you want to learn from me, great. If not, that’s cool too.  

Find an expert you trust. 

Just understand that you make your money buying, usually when most won’t. 

 

3 – I'm on a fixed income, I can’t invest constantly 

Respectfully, bullsh_t. 

If you are buying AND selling regularly (which I advocate), then you have a constant source of money available that you can plow back into undervalued stocks, funds, or income producers.  

You can also slow down your buying to the point where you’re just picking up a single share at a time using money you’d otherwise blow on $10 a cup flavored water. 

My point is twofold. 

First, that you will never be caught without cash when an opportunity surfaces or there’s a correction – and there will be both ahead. 

And second, there is always a way. 

The real problem is one that most investors can’t bring themselves to face. You won’t be alone if you’re one of ‘em. 

Many folks want to be successful but very few are willing to orient themselves towards making the decisions needed and taking the actions that’ll get ‘em there.

Simple as that. 

If you want to be a better investor, be better! 

 

4 – Do you agree with ___ on (stock of the day, fund, etf)? 

Maybe, maybe not. 

That’s the wrong question either way. 

Investing by consensus is a recipe for disaster. Functionally speaking, it’s no different than designing a camel by committee. 

What you want to be asking yourself, scratch that... what you should be asking yourself... is what YOU want to achieve, by when and how.  

Then work backwards to build a rock-solid plan and to identify the actions that’ll get you to the finish line. 

Investing is not a competition, nor a race. 

It makes no sense to apply the same tired old thinking everybody else does but expect different results. 

 

5 – Yeah, but.... China, elections, the Fed, Russia, Martians. 

There is a special place in financial hell for the “yeah but” crowd, many of whom find out far too late that they could’ve taken a different path to profits rather than selling out only to wish they hadn't.

It’s not easy – don't get me wrong. 

There are all sorts of reasons not to invest but the thing you want to remember is that profits are almost always the currency of success. 

That’s why the markets reward discipline, something you hear me say all the time. 

Common wisdom reflects this. 

For example...

  • Buffett says, “be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful.” 
  • The late Sir John Templeton encouraged buying at what he called “points of maximum pessimism.” 
  • Lord Rothchild reportedly said to “buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpets.” 
  • Suze Orman says, “We stick to familiar things even if they no longer serve us because the unknown feels risky. But this mindset can lead to missed opportunities and greater financial losses.” 

And me? 

  • If I there is one thing I’ve learned above all else over the past 44 years in global markets, it’s that “Missing opportunity is always more expensive than trying to avoid risks you can’t control.” 

 

I invest in the “best, ignore the rest” because I want to focus on growth, not fads. 

I prioritize companies with a clear path to profits, execution-oriented management, and massive addressable markets worldwide. 

I do so with the intention of holding for at least 3-5 years but in some cases for the rest of my investing lifetime because I am interested in capturing structural changes based on where the world is going, not where it’s been. 

I favor tactics that give me an edge and will pass on anything unless I have one, no matter how much I “like” a company and even if it meets all other criteria. And no matter who recommends it or even hates it. 

I don’t worry about noise because I know (based on careful study and decades of research) that the markets have a very defined upside bias over time which means price action may rhyme, even if doesn’t repeat step for step. 

And finally, I know that being “in to win” is how you actually win.  

And if you can’t do those things? 

There’s always Vegas or the latest tip sheet masquerading as financial research. 

Meanwhile, I’ll be here if you need me or would like to join the One Bar Ahead® Family and take your game up a notch. If not, no offense taken. 

Either way, I wish YOU all the success in the world. 

Bottom Line

Thanks for reading along and for spending a few minutes with me today. 
 
I hope my perspective is helpful and, dare I say it, profitable.
 
As always, let’s finish the week strong! 
 
You got this – I promise.
 
Keith ๐Ÿ˜Š

 

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